Trader consensus prices a 69.5% implied probability on a draw in Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the classical chess format's draw-prone nature at elite levels, especially with both Andrey Esipenko (2698 Elo, 1/3 points) and Anish Giri (2753 Elo, 1/3 points) showing resilient defenses after Round 1 losses—Sindarov over Esipenko and Praggnanandhaa over Giri. Round 2 and 3 draws against heavyweights like Nakamura (for both), Caruana (Giri), and Bluebaum (Esipenko) underscore their solidity in the double round-robin, positioning them tied near the bottom behind leaders Caruana and Sindarov at 2.5/3. Esipenko's 14% win probability edges Giri's 12% due to his proven experience against 2700+ foes, despite the Dutchman's rating edge, in a matchup demanding precise preparation amid mid-tournament pressure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

If Andrey Esipenko wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...

If Andrey Esipenko wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a 69.5% implied probability on a draw in Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the classical chess format's draw-prone nature at elite levels, especially with both Andrey Esipenko (2698 Elo, 1/3 points) and Anish Giri (2753 Elo, 1/3 points) showing resilient defenses after Round 1 losses—Sindarov over Esipenko and Praggnanandhaa over Giri. Round 2 and 3 draws against heavyweights like Nakamura (for both), Caruana (Giri), and Bluebaum (Esipenko) underscore their solidity in the double round-robin, positioning them tied near the bottom behind leaders Caruana and Sindarov at 2.5/3. Esipenko's 14% win probability edges Giri's 12% due to his proven experience against 2700+ foes, despite the Dutchman's rating edge, in a matchup demanding precise preparation amid mid-tournament pressure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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