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Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?

Market icon

Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the resolution time of July 31, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), Ukraine is recognized as a regular member state of the European Union, and to "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved based on official information from the European Commission and the European Parliament, primarily their press releases (https://europa.eu/newsroom/) and the official list of EU member states (https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles_en). Please note, that this market resolves to “Yes” exclusively if Ukraine becomes a full member state of the European Union, and is not affected by any other stage of the accession process into the EU. In case another new EU member country enters under any name containing the word “Ukraine”, it must cover at least 40% of Ukraine's territory as currently recognized by the United Nations (including Crimea, Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast) for this market to resolve to “Yes”.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the resolution time of July 31, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), Ukraine is recognized as a regular member state of the European Union, and to "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved based on official information from the European Commission and the European Parliament, primarily their press releases (https://europa.eu/newsroom/) and the official list of EU member states (https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles_en). Please note, that this market resolves to “Yes” exclusively if Ukraine becomes a full member state of the European Union, and is not affected by any other stage of the accession process into the EU. In case another new EU member country enters under any name containing the word “Ukraine”, it must cover at least 40% of Ukraine's territory as currently recognized by the United Nations (including Crimea, Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast) for this market to resolve to “Yes”.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?" has generated $20.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Ukraine be a member state of the European Union by July 31, 2022?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.