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Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?

Market icon

Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?

0% chance
Polymarket

$41 Vol.

0% chance
Polymarket

$41 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump's favorability rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 37.4% for the day of April 14, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for April 14 as soon as a datapoint for April 15 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the April 15 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for April 14 is available by April 15, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous favorability rating to April 14. The resolution source is Trump's 538 favorability rating currently available at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the Indigo line labeled "Favorable." Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump's favorability rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than or equal to 37.4% for the day of April 14, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for April 14 as soon as a datapoint for April 15 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the April 15 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for April 14 is available by April 15, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous favorability rating to April 14. The resolution source is Trump's 538 favorability rating currently available at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the Indigo line labeled "Favorable." Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 10, 2023. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump's 538 favorability rating be 37.4% or higher on April 14?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.