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Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?

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Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight will be greater than or equal to 42.5% for the day of October 6, 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution data for October 6 will be checked on October 7, 2022 (12 PM ET), and can only resolve after the check. If for any reason (e.g. error, no data taken, etc.) there is no data point for October 6 on the check time, the market will be checked 6 hours later, at 6 PM ET on October 7, 2022. If there is still no data point, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous available approval rating to October 6. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous available approval rating to October 6. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight will be greater than or equal to 42.5% for the day of October 6, 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution data for October 6 will be checked on October 7, 2022 (12 PM ET), and can only resolve after the check. If for any reason (e.g. error, no data taken, etc.) there is no data point for October 6 on the check time, the market will be checked 6 hours later, at 6 PM ET on October 7, 2022. If there is still no data point, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous available approval rating to October 6. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous available approval rating to October 6. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 30, 2022. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 42.5% or higher on October 6?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.