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Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane?

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Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane?

0% chance
Polymarket

$20,382 Vol.

0% chance
Polymarket

$20,382 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Idalia makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?). If Idalia is not officially reported to be Category 3 or greater status at the time of landfall in Florida or dissipates without making landfall in Florida, this market shall resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, a major hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when the major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Idalia has made landfall in Florida at category 3 or greater strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Idalia makes landfall in Florida as a major hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?). If Idalia is not officially reported to be Category 3 or greater status at the time of landfall in Florida or dissipates without making landfall in Florida, this market shall resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, a major hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a major hurricane landfall is said to occur when the major hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Idalia has made landfall in Florida at category 3 or greater strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? " is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? " has generated $20.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 28, 2023. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? ," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? " is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Idalia hit Florida as a major hurricane? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.