Market icon
Economia·Imobiliário·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?

Market icon
Economia·Imobiliário·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?

427,5 - 430 mil 13.6%

422,5 - 425 mil 10%

430 - 432,5 mil 3.4%

>435 mil 2.5%

Polymarket

$17,035 Vol.

427,5 - 430 mil 13.6%

422,5 - 425 mil 10%

430 - 432,5 mil 3.4%

>435 mil 2.5%

Polymarket

$17,035 Vol.

<420 mil

$0 Vol.

34%

420 - 422,5k

$0 Vol.

33%

422,5 - 425 mil

$6,356 Vol.

10%

425 - 427,5k

$7,524 Vol.

52%

427,5 - 430 mil

$759 Vol.

14%

430 - 432,5 mil

$0 Vol.

3%

432,5 - 435k

$2,396 Vol.

30%

>435 mil

$0 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the $425,000–$427,500 range per Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) on April 1, reflecting February's approximate $425,000 reading—up 0.1% month-over-month amid stabilizing demand. This positioning stems from NAR's February existing-home sales rising 1.7% to 4.09 million units, with median sales price edging 0.3% higher year-over-year to $398,000, and Redfin's median sale price climbing 0.9% to $429,000, signaling modest momentum despite elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6% and rising inventory. Lower bins like below $420,000 (30.4%) capture affordability strains, with Zillow's March ZHVI release imminent as the key catalyst.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the $425,000–$427,500 range per Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) on April 1, reflecting February's approximate $425,000 reading—up 0.1% month-over-month amid stabilizing demand. This positioning stems from NAR's February existing-home sales rising 1.7% to 4.09 million units, with median sales price edging 0.3% higher year-over-year to $398,000, and Redfin's median sale price climbing 0.9% to $429,000, signaling modest momentum despite elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6% and rising inventory. Lower bins like below $420,000 (30.4%) capture affordability strains, with Zillow's March ZHVI release imminent as the key catalyst.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the $425,000–$427,500 range per Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) on April 1, reflecting February's approximate $425,000 reading—up 0.1% month-over-month amid stabilizing demand. This positioning stems from NAR's February existing-home sales rising 1.7% to 4.09 million units, with median sales price edging 0.3% higher year-over-year to $398,000, and Redfin's median sale price climbing 0.9% to $429,000, signaling modest momentum despite elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6% and rising inventory. Lower bins like below $420,000 (30.4%) capture affordability strains, with Zillow's March ZHVI release imminent as the key catalyst.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the $425,000–$427,500 range per Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) on April 1, reflecting February's approximate $425,000 reading—up 0.1% month-over-month amid stabilizing demand. This positioning stems from NAR's February existing-home sales rising 1.7% to 4.09 million units, with median sales price edging 0.3% higher year-over-year to $398,000, and Redfin's median sale price climbing 0.9% to $429,000, signaling modest momentum despite elevated 30-year mortgage rates near 6% and rising inventory. Lower bins like below $420,000 (30.4%) capture affordability strains, with Zillow's March ZHVI release imminent as the key catalyst.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "425 - 427,5k" at 53%, followed by "<420 mil" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?" has generated $17K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?" is "425 - 427,5k" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<420 mil" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual será o valor médio da casa nos EUA no dia 1º de abril?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.