Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 22°C or higher on April 14, driven by official forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) predicting a warm daytime high of 24–28°C under mostly clear skies and stable high-pressure systems typical of the dry season. Recent observational data from Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution source—shows consistent highs of 25–27°C over the past week, aligning with April climatological averages around 26°C, where temperatures rarely dip below 23°C historically. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF reinforce this, factoring in minimal cloud cover and light winds. Realistic challenges include unforecasted afternoon showers from nearby convective activity or sudden cold air intrusion, though SMN guidance shows low precipitation risk; final airport readings later today will confirm resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 14?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 14?
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$361,597 Vol.
$361,597 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
Yes
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$361,597 Vol.
$361,597 Vol.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 22°C or higher on April 14, driven by official forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) predicting a warm daytime high of 24–28°C under mostly clear skies and stable high-pressure systems typical of the dry season. Recent observational data from Benito Juárez International Airport—the market's resolution source—shows consistent highs of 25–27°C over the past week, aligning with April climatological averages around 26°C, where temperatures rarely dip below 23°C historically. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF reinforce this, factoring in minimal cloud cover and light winds. Realistic challenges include unforecasted afternoon showers from nearby convective activity or sudden cold air intrusion, though SMN guidance shows low precipitation risk; final airport readings later today will confirm resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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