Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 13°C at 100% implied probability for Istanbul Airport's highest temperature on April 14, directly reflecting the official NOAA observational data confirming this maximum from automated weather station measurements at the site. This positioning aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reports of widespread cool conditions, including agricultural frost warnings, driven by persistent northerly airflow, overcast skies, and limited solar heating that capped daytime warming below climatological April averages of 16–17°C. Pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models accurately projected highs around 13°C amid these atmospheric patterns. Realistic challenges are minimal, limited to rare post-validation data revisions for sensor anomalies, with no further updates expected as observations finalize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 14?
13°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$65,546 Vol.
$65,546 Vol.
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$65,546 Vol.
$65,546 Vol.
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 12, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 13°C at 100% implied probability for Istanbul Airport's highest temperature on April 14, directly reflecting the official NOAA observational data confirming this maximum from automated weather station measurements at the site. This positioning aligns with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) reports of widespread cool conditions, including agricultural frost warnings, driven by persistent northerly airflow, overcast skies, and limited solar heating that capped daytime warming below climatological April averages of 16–17°C. Pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models accurately projected highs around 13°C amid these atmospheric patterns. Realistic challenges are minimal, limited to rare post-validation data revisions for sensor anomalies, with no further updates expected as observations finalize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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