France dominates trader consensus at 66% implied probability to win Group I, driven by its elite squad depth featuring Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, and a proven World Cup pedigree, including the 2018 title and 2022 final. Norway's 22% reflects Erling Haaland's goal-scoring prowess and Martin Ødegaard's creativity, bolstered by recent Nations League form despite uneven qualifiers. Senegal holds 8.5% on Sadio Mané's experience and defensive solidity, though recent AFCON struggles temper optimism. Bolivia, Iraq, and Suriname trail at 2.6% combined as underdogs lacking star power or historical edge, with no major roster shifts altering the hierarchy—traders weigh France's rest advantage post-club season as key.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoFrança 66%
Noruega 22%
Senegal 9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR 2.6%
$48,082 Vol.
$48,082 Vol.
França
66%
Noruega
22%
Senegal
9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR
3%
França 66%
Noruega 22%
Senegal 9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR 2.6%
$48,082 Vol.
$48,082 Vol.
França
66%
Noruega
22%
Senegal
9%
BOL/IRQ/SUR
3%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France dominates trader consensus at 66% implied probability to win Group I, driven by its elite squad depth featuring Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, and a proven World Cup pedigree, including the 2018 title and 2022 final. Norway's 22% reflects Erling Haaland's goal-scoring prowess and Martin Ødegaard's creativity, bolstered by recent Nations League form despite uneven qualifiers. Senegal holds 8.5% on Sadio Mané's experience and defensive solidity, though recent AFCON struggles temper optimism. Bolivia, Iraq, and Suriname trail at 2.6% combined as underdogs lacking star power or historical edge, with no major roster shifts altering the hierarchy—traders weigh France's rest advantage post-club season as key.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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