Trader consensus favors Netherlands at 53.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their top-10 FIFA ranking, deep squad featuring stars like Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, and unbeaten head-to-head record against Japan including a 2010 World Cup victory. Japan sits at 28% on strong recent form, highlighted by their 2022 group-stage upset over Germany and technical attacking play, positioning them as credible challengers in the opener versus Netherlands on June 14. Sweden's recent 3-2 playoff triumph over Poland on March 31—despite a winless qualifying group and injuries to Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski—secures their spot at 16.5%, reflecting underdog potential via Nations League success. Tunisia trails at 3.7%, hampered by lower ranking and historical early exits.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHolanda 54%
Japão 28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 17%
Tunísia 3.6%
$51,508 Vol.
$51,508 Vol.
Holanda
54%
Japão
28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
17%
Tunísia
4%
Holanda 54%
Japão 28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 17%
Tunísia 3.6%
$51,508 Vol.
$51,508 Vol.
Holanda
54%
Japão
28%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
17%
Tunísia
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Netherlands at 53.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their top-10 FIFA ranking, deep squad featuring stars like Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, and unbeaten head-to-head record against Japan including a 2010 World Cup victory. Japan sits at 28% on strong recent form, highlighted by their 2022 group-stage upset over Germany and technical attacking play, positioning them as credible challengers in the opener versus Netherlands on June 14. Sweden's recent 3-2 playoff triumph over Poland on March 31—despite a winless qualifying group and injuries to Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski—secures their spot at 16.5%, reflecting underdog potential via Nations League success. Tunisia trails at 3.7%, hampered by lower ranking and historical early exits.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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