Trader consensus prices Netherlands at 53.5% implied probability to top Group F, driven by their No. 5 FIFA ranking, direct qualification via UEFA Group G dominance, and elite squad depth with Virgil van Dijk anchoring defense alongside midfield stars like Frenkie de Jong. Japan's 28.5% reflects their AFC group leadership, lethal counter-attacks, and history of upsets like 2022's win over Germany, positioning them as competitive challengers. The UEFA Path B winner slot—Sweden after their March 26 semifinal hat-trick rout of Ukraine (3-1 aggregate via Viktor Gyökeres) and final edge over Poland—holds 16.5%, signaling solid European pedigree but matchup disadvantages against the favorites. Tunisia trails at 3.8%, hampered by lower ranking and weaker recent form.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHolanda 54%
Japão 29%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 17%
Tunísia 3.8%
$52,143 Vol.
$52,143 Vol.
Holanda
54%
Japão
29%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
17%
Tunísia
4%
Holanda 54%
Japão 29%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 17%
Tunísia 3.8%
$52,143 Vol.
$52,143 Vol.
Holanda
54%
Japão
29%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
17%
Tunísia
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Netherlands at 53.5% implied probability to top Group F, driven by their No. 5 FIFA ranking, direct qualification via UEFA Group G dominance, and elite squad depth with Virgil van Dijk anchoring defense alongside midfield stars like Frenkie de Jong. Japan's 28.5% reflects their AFC group leadership, lethal counter-attacks, and history of upsets like 2022's win over Germany, positioning them as competitive challengers. The UEFA Path B winner slot—Sweden after their March 26 semifinal hat-trick rout of Ukraine (3-1 aggregate via Viktor Gyökeres) and final edge over Poland—holds 16.5%, signaling solid European pedigree but matchup disadvantages against the favorites. Tunisia trails at 3.8%, hampered by lower ranking and weaker recent form.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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