Trader consensus reflects a razor-tight Group D race, with USA and the bundled KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR outcome—effectively Turkey after their 1-0 playoff win over Kosovo on March 31—both at 38% implied probability following Turkey's momentum-building qualification that ended a 24-year World Cup absence. USA benefits from co-host status and home games at SoFi Stadium against Paraguay on June 12 and Turkey on June 25, plus a Seattle matchup versus Australia, but recent prep friendlies exposed vulnerabilities, including a 5-2 rout by Belgium. Paraguay (17%) leverages CONMEBOL qualifier grit despite a No. 39 FIFA ranking, while Australia (8%) lags with inconsistent AFC form and a No. 26 ranking, keeping advancement scenarios fluid for the top two plus potential third-place qualifier.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEUA 39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 38%
Paraguai 17%
Austrália 8.2%
$14,057 Vol.
$14,057 Vol.
EUA
39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
38%
Paraguai
17%
Austrália
8%
EUA 39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 38%
Paraguai 17%
Austrália 8.2%
$14,057 Vol.
$14,057 Vol.
EUA
39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
38%
Paraguai
17%
Austrália
8%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus reflects a razor-tight Group D race, with USA and the bundled KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR outcome—effectively Turkey after their 1-0 playoff win over Kosovo on March 31—both at 38% implied probability following Turkey's momentum-building qualification that ended a 24-year World Cup absence. USA benefits from co-host status and home games at SoFi Stadium against Paraguay on June 12 and Turkey on June 25, plus a Seattle matchup versus Australia, but recent prep friendlies exposed vulnerabilities, including a 5-2 rout by Belgium. Paraguay (17%) leverages CONMEBOL qualifier grit despite a No. 39 FIFA ranking, while Australia (8%) lags with inconsistent AFC form and a No. 26 ranking, keeping advancement scenarios fluid for the top two plus potential third-place qualifier.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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