Polymarket traders price a 43% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 year-end IPCA inflation falling in the 4.50-4.99% range, reflecting recent upward revisions in the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) weekly Focus survey to 4.31% as of March 30—up from 4.17%—driven by a hotter-than-expected March IPCA-15 at 0.44% and surging global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. This positions the outcome near the 4.5% upper tolerance band of the 3% target, with 24.5% odds for 4.00-4.49% capturing economist consensus and 21.6% for 5.00-5.49% pricing geopolitical upside risks, despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% on March 18. Upcoming official March IPCA data and late-April Copom meeting will shape further sentiment shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado4,50-4,99% 42.3%
4,00-4,49% 24%
5,00-5,49% 21.6%
3,50-3,99% 5.5%
$32,083 Vol.
$32,083 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
2%
3,50-3,99%
6%
4,00-4,49%
24%
4,50-4,99%
42%
5,00-5,49%
22%
5,50-5,99%
4%
6,00-6,49%
3%
6,50-6,99%
3%
7,00%+
5%
4,50-4,99% 42.3%
4,00-4,49% 24%
5,00-5,49% 21.6%
3,50-3,99% 5.5%
$32,083 Vol.
$32,083 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
$2,671 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$2,943 Vol.
2%
3,50-3,99%
$4,953 Vol.
6%
4,00-4,49%
$3,652 Vol.
24%
4,50-4,99%
$4,693 Vol.
42%
5,00-5,49%
$3,929 Vol.
22%
5,50-5,99%
$2,334 Vol.
4%
6,00-6,49%
$2,347 Vol.
3%
6,50-6,99%
$2,296 Vol.
3%
7,00%+
$2,265 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders price a 43% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 year-end IPCA inflation falling in the 4.50-4.99% range, reflecting recent upward revisions in the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) weekly Focus survey to 4.31% as of March 30—up from 4.17%—driven by a hotter-than-expected March IPCA-15 at 0.44% and surging global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. This positions the outcome near the 4.5% upper tolerance band of the 3% target, with 24.5% odds for 4.00-4.49% capturing economist consensus and 21.6% for 5.00-5.49% pricing geopolitical upside risks, despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% on March 18. Upcoming official March IPCA data and late-April Copom meeting will shape further sentiment shifts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$32,083Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders price a 43% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 year-end IPCA inflation falling in the 4.50-4.99% range, reflecting recent upward revisions in the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) weekly Focus survey to 4.31% as of March 30—up from 4.17%—driven by a hotter-than-expected March IPCA-15 at 0.44% and surging global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. This positions the outcome near the 4.5% upper tolerance band of the 3% target, with 24.5% odds for 4.00-4.49% capturing economist consensus and 21.6% for 5.00-5.49% pricing geopolitical upside risks, despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% on March 18. Upcoming official March IPCA data and late-April Copom meeting will shape further sentiment shifts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$32,083Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 43% implied probability for Brazil's 2026 year-end IPCA inflation falling in the 4.50-4.99% range, reflecting recent upward revisions in the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) weekly Focus survey to 4.31% as of March 30—up from 4.17%—driven by a hotter-than-expected March IPCA-15 at 0.44% and surging global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. This positions the outcome near the 4.5% upper tolerance band of the 3% target, with 24.5% odds for 4.00-4.49% capturing economist consensus and 21.6% for 5.00-5.49% pricing geopolitical upside risks, despite Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% on March 18. Upcoming official March IPCA data and late-April Copom meeting will shape further sentiment shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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