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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?

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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for the date of August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans and Democrats at an equal percentage of support, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on August 16, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of August 15 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at August 17, 12 PM ET. If data for August 15, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for the date of August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans and Democrats at an equal percentage of support, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on August 16, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of August 15 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at August 17, 12 PM ET. If data for August 15, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 2, 2022. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?" is "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.