Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the March 31 playoffs that finalized the 48-team field, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, perfect UEFA Group E qualifying record, and current world No. 1 ranking with emerging stars like Lamine Yamal driving momentum. France (13.3%) and England (11.8%) remain tightly bunched behind, buoyed by France's recent 2-1 friendly win over Brazil and both nations' direct qualification via dominant European campaigns, showcasing deep talent pools in Mbappé, Kane, and Bellingham. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) complete the top five amid defending champion pedigree but face scrutiny over aging cores and inconsistent CONMEBOL form, highlighting the razor-thin margins among UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses in the expanded tournament's group stage draw.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.9%
França 13.3%
Inglaterra 11.8%
Argentina 9.2%
$478,337,148 Vol.
$478,337,148 Vol.

Espanha
16%

França
13%

Inglaterra
12%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Bélgica
2%

Japão
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Uruguai
1%

México
1%

Croácia
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Turquia
1%

Senegal
1%

Suécia
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Egito
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Tchéquia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Panamá
<1%

Iraque
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Curaçao
<1%
Espanha 15.9%
França 13.3%
Inglaterra 11.8%
Argentina 9.2%
$478,337,148 Vol.
$478,337,148 Vol.

Espanha
16%

França
13%

Inglaterra
12%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Bélgica
2%

Japão
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Uruguai
1%

México
1%

Croácia
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Turquia
1%

Senegal
1%

Suécia
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Egito
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Tchéquia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Panamá
<1%

Iraque
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the March 31 playoffs that finalized the 48-team field, propelled by their Euro 2024 title, perfect UEFA Group E qualifying record, and current world No. 1 ranking with emerging stars like Lamine Yamal driving momentum. France (13.3%) and England (11.8%) remain tightly bunched behind, buoyed by France's recent 2-1 friendly win over Brazil and both nations' direct qualification via dominant European campaigns, showcasing deep talent pools in Mbappé, Kane, and Bellingham. Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) complete the top five amid defending champion pedigree but face scrutiny over aging cores and inconsistent CONMEBOL form, highlighting the razor-thin margins among UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses in the expanded tournament's group stage draw.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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