Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, midfield dominance via Rodri and Pedri, and a favorable group draw avoiding early clashes with top rivals like Argentina and France until knockout stages. France (11.9%) surged closer after emphatic friendly victories over Brazil (2-1) and Colombia last week, showcasing squad depth and attacking flair from Mbappé amid qualifiers' conclusion. England (12.7%) and defending champions Argentina (9.7%) remain tightly bunched due to consistent qualifying campaigns, home-soil advantages for hosts, and balanced paths, underscoring a hyper-competitive field with no dominant favorite as playoffs wrap today.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 16.0%
Inglaterra 12.7%
França 11.9%
Argentina 9.7%
$440,012,092 Vol.
$440,012,092 Vol.

Espanha
16%

Inglaterra
13%

França
12%

Argentina
10%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Itália
3%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Japão
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

México
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Egito
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%
Espanha 16.0%
Inglaterra 12.7%
França 11.9%
Argentina 9.7%
$440,012,092 Vol.
$440,012,092 Vol.

Espanha
16%

Inglaterra
13%

França
12%

Argentina
10%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Itália
3%

Bélgica
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Japão
1%

Uruguai
1%

Croácia
1%

México
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Senegal
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Egito
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, midfield dominance via Rodri and Pedri, and a favorable group draw avoiding early clashes with top rivals like Argentina and France until knockout stages. France (11.9%) surged closer after emphatic friendly victories over Brazil (2-1) and Colombia last week, showcasing squad depth and attacking flair from Mbappé amid qualifiers' conclusion. England (12.7%) and defending champions Argentina (9.7%) remain tightly bunched due to consistent qualifying campaigns, home-soil advantages for hosts, and balanced paths, underscoring a hyper-competitive field with no dominant favorite as playoffs wrap today.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions