Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16% implied probability, bolstered by their Euro 2024 triumph and flawless qualifiers capped by recent Nations League successes, showcasing youthful stars like Lamine Yamal thriving in attack. France (13%) trails closely after reclaiming the FIFA top ranking with dominant March friendlies and playoff wins, leveraging Kylian Mbappé's form amid an in-form squad. England (12%), Argentina (9%), and Brazil (9%) keep the race tight through deep talent pools, defending champion pedigree, and historical pedigree, though Brazil absorbs a blow from Rodrygo's recent ACL tear ruling him out. The bunched top probabilities reflect parity among European heavyweights, the expanded 48-team format inviting group stage upsets post the April 1 draw, and two months of club-season volatility ahead of the USA-Canada-Mexico-hosted tournament.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEspanha 15.9%
França 13.1%
Inglaterra 11.8%
Argentina 9.2%
$480,886,861 Vol.
$480,886,861 Vol.

Espanha
16%

França
13%

Inglaterra
12%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Bélgica
2%

Japão
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Uruguai
1%

México
1%

Croácia
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Turquia
1%

Senegal
1%

Suécia
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Egito
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Tchéquia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Panamá
<1%

Iraque
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Curaçao
<1%
Espanha 15.9%
França 13.1%
Inglaterra 11.8%
Argentina 9.2%
$480,886,861 Vol.
$480,886,861 Vol.

Espanha
16%

França
13%

Inglaterra
12%

Argentina
9%

Brasil
9%

Portugal
7%

Alemanha
5%

Holanda
3%

Noruega
3%

Bélgica
2%

Japão
2%

Colômbia
2%

EUA
2%

Marrocos
2%

Uruguai
1%

México
1%

Croácia
1%

Suíça
1%

Equador
1%

Turquia
1%

Senegal
1%

Suécia
1%

Canadá
1%

Áustria
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Bósnia-Herzegovina
<1%

Paraguai
<1%

Escócia
<1%

Costa do Marfim
<1%

Egito
<1%

Gana
<1%

Argélia
<1%

Tunísia
<1%

Tchéquia
<1%

Austrália
<1%

Arábia Saudita
<1%

Nova Zelândia
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordânia
<1%

Irã
<1%

Uzbequistão
<1%

Panamá
<1%

Iraque
<1%

África do Sul
<1%

RD Congo
<1%

Cabo Verde
<1%

Catar
<1%

Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16% implied probability, bolstered by their Euro 2024 triumph and flawless qualifiers capped by recent Nations League successes, showcasing youthful stars like Lamine Yamal thriving in attack. France (13%) trails closely after reclaiming the FIFA top ranking with dominant March friendlies and playoff wins, leveraging Kylian Mbappé's form amid an in-form squad. England (12%), Argentina (9%), and Brazil (9%) keep the race tight through deep talent pools, defending champion pedigree, and historical pedigree, though Brazil absorbs a blow from Rodrygo's recent ACL tear ruling him out. The bunched top probabilities reflect parity among European heavyweights, the expanded 48-team format inviting group stage upsets post the April 1 draw, and two months of club-season volatility ahead of the USA-Canada-Mexico-hosted tournament.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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