Iranian Kurds, concentrated in the northwest, have long pursued greater cultural and political rights amid repression by Tehran, but organized groups prioritize regime change or federal autonomy over declaring a sovereign state. In early 2026, five major opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to coordinate against the Islamic Republic and plan transitional administration in Kurdish areas, yet their platforms emphasize democratic self-determination within Iran rather than secession. Tehran's security apparatus has consistently crushed separatist threats, while neighboring states like Turkey oppose any fragmentation that could inspire cross-border movements. Recent U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran created openings for unrest but yielded mixed external backing and no unified push for independence. A declaration remains improbable absent a total central collapse or sustained external military guarantees, both low-probability outcomes given Iran's military capacity and Kurdish parties' internal coordination limits.