**Anna Paulina Luna holds a clear edge in the FL-13 general election on November 3, 2026, as the two-term Republican incumbent in a district rated R+5 to R+6 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index.** Redistricting shifted lines to favor Republicans by incorporating more northern Pasco County territory and reducing Democratic strongholds in St. Petersburg. Luna secured the GOP nomination unopposed after raising over $3.2 million with substantial cash on hand, while Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general, won the Democratic primary decisively in August but trails in overall fundraising. Multiple nonpartisan raters classify the seat as Lean or Likely Republican, though a late-August Democratic poll showed Gray narrowly ahead and prompted modest rating shifts toward the challenger. The independent candidate Tony D’Arrigo remains a minor factor. Trader consensus reflects Luna’s structural advantages tempered by the district’s competitiveness and national midterm dynamics.