Long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17), where she won 65% in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. With over $580,000 cash-on-hand as of late March—far outpacing challengers including Republican Shane Lewis ($16,000)—Lofgren faces minimal threats from the sparse field of one fellow Democrat, one no-party-preference candidate, and Lewis. Ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. Upsets would require a primary surprise, Lofgren scandal or health event given her age (78), or a national Republican midterm wave, though incumbency and district lean make these low-probability scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-18 House Election Winner
CA-18 House Election Winner
$31,023 Wol.
$31,023 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$31,023 Wol.
$31,023 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,161 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$14,862 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17), where she won 65% in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. With over $580,000 cash-on-hand as of late March—far outpacing challengers including Republican Shane Lewis ($16,000)—Lofgren faces minimal threats from the sparse field of one fellow Democrat, one no-party-preference candidate, and Lewis. Ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. Upsets would require a primary surprise, Lofgren scandal or health event given her age (78), or a national Republican midterm wave, though incumbency and district lean make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$31,023Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17), where she won 65% in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. With over $580,000 cash-on-hand as of late March—far outpacing challengers including Republican Shane Lewis ($16,000)—Lofgren faces minimal threats from the sparse field of one fellow Democrat, one no-party-preference candidate, and Lewis. Ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. Upsets would require a primary surprise, Lofgren scandal or health event given her age (78), or a national Republican midterm wave, though incumbency and district lean make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$31,023Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren's commanding position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District (Cook PVI D+17), where she won 65% in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring Democrats at 93.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. With over $580,000 cash-on-hand as of late March—far outpacing challengers including Republican Shane Lewis ($16,000)—Lofgren faces minimal threats from the sparse field of one fellow Democrat, one no-party-preference candidate, and Lewis. Ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others deem it Solid/Safe Democratic. Upsets would require a primary surprise, Lofgren scandal or health event given her age (78), or a national Republican midterm wave, though incumbency and district lean make these low-probability scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania