California's 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean of D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchored in San Mateo County and surrounding Bay Area communities. Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2, 2026, primary, advancing comfortably ahead of the leading Republican challenger at about 24 percent, consistent with historical margins exceeding 70 percent in recent general elections. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave, significant redistricting shifts, or a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$116,586 Wol.
$116,586 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$116,586 Wol.
$116,586 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$92,679 Wol.
96%
Republican Party
$23,908 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean of D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchored in San Mateo County and surrounding Bay Area communities. Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2, 2026, primary, advancing comfortably ahead of the leading Republican challenger at about 24 percent, consistent with historical margins exceeding 70 percent in recent general elections. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave, significant redistricting shifts, or a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$116,586Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean of D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchored in San Mateo County and surrounding Bay Area communities. Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2, 2026, primary, advancing comfortably ahead of the leading Republican challenger at about 24 percent, consistent with historical margins exceeding 70 percent in recent general elections. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave, significant redistricting shifts, or a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$116,586Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 15th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean of D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchored in San Mateo County and surrounding Bay Area communities. Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2, 2026, primary, advancing comfortably ahead of the leading Republican challenger at about 24 percent, consistent with historical margins exceeding 70 percent in recent general elections. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 95.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national wave, significant redistricting shifts, or a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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