Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 97% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 91% to advance on June 2, driven by the district's Solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+8) and vote-splitting among six Republican contenders amid low GOP fundraising. Ballots began mailing May 4 with early voting underway, heightening focus on turnout in this post-redistricting map. Jones leads receipts ($3.2M vs. Thompson's $2.9M per March filings) and holds Our Revolution backing, while Thompson boasts more cash on hand and California Democratic Party endorsement; absent polls, final forums could influence undecideds before polls close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$23,087 Wol.
Jun 2, 2026
Mike Thompson
97%
Eric Jones
91%
Heath Fulkerson
12%
Trevor Merrell
12%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Sharon Brown
7%
Mandy Ghusar
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
$23,087 Wol.
Mike Thompson
$7,050 Wol.
97%
Eric Jones
$4,785 Wol.
91%
Heath Fulkerson
$396 Wol.
12%
Trevor Merrell
$7,016 Wol.
12%
John Wesley Tyler
$765 Wol.
8%
Sharon Brown
$1,621 Wol.
7%
Mandy Ghusar
$744 Wol.
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
$710 Wol.
5%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 97% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 91% to advance on June 2, driven by the district's Solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+8) and vote-splitting among six Republican contenders amid low GOP fundraising. Ballots began mailing May 4 with early voting underway, heightening focus on turnout in this post-redistricting map. Jones leads receipts ($3.2M vs. Thompson's $2.9M per March filings) and holds Our Revolution backing, while Thompson boasts more cash on hand and California Democratic Party endorsement; absent polls, final forums could influence undecideds before polls close.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$23,087Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 97% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 91% to advance on June 2, driven by the district's Solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+8) and vote-splitting among six Republican contenders amid low GOP fundraising. Ballots began mailing May 4 with early voting underway, heightening focus on turnout in this post-redistricting map. Jones leads receipts ($3.2M vs. Thompson's $2.9M per March filings) and holds Our Revolution backing, while Thompson boasts more cash on hand and California Democratic Party endorsement; absent polls, final forums could influence undecideds before polls close.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$23,087Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in the CA-04 top-two primary market strongly favors incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) at 97% and challenger Eric Jones (D) at 91% to advance on June 2, driven by the district's Solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+8) and vote-splitting among six Republican contenders amid low GOP fundraising. Ballots began mailing May 4 with early voting underway, heightening focus on turnout in this post-redistricting map. Jones leads receipts ($3.2M vs. Thompson's $2.9M per March filings) and holds Our Revolution backing, while Thompson boasts more cash on hand and California Democratic Party endorsement; absent polls, final forums could influence undecideds before polls close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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