The Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—though trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 1.15–1.19°C reflects alignment with cross-verified preliminary readings from NOAA and NASA datasets, which typically report 0.2–0.3°C lower due to methodological differences in baselines and coverage. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions, widespread marine heatwaves in the tropical Pacific, and emerging El Niño conditions drove this sustained warmth. Final NOAA GlobalTemp and NASA GISTEMP releases expected mid-May could prompt minor revisions if land data adjustments shift the consensus outside this narrow bin.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 96.0%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.8%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,894 Wol.
$350,894 Wol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 96.0%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.8%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$350,894 Wol.
$350,894 Wol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,339 Wol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$62,530 Wol.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,914 Wol.
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
$69,504 Wol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62,650 Wol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$47,957 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—though trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 1.15–1.19°C reflects alignment with cross-verified preliminary readings from NOAA and NASA datasets, which typically report 0.2–0.3°C lower due to methodological differences in baselines and coverage. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions, widespread marine heatwaves in the tropical Pacific, and emerging El Niño conditions drove this sustained warmth. Final NOAA GlobalTemp and NASA GISTEMP releases expected mid-May could prompt minor revisions if land data adjustments shift the consensus outside this narrow bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$350,894Data zakończenia
May 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—though trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 1.15–1.19°C reflects alignment with cross-verified preliminary readings from NOAA and NASA datasets, which typically report 0.2–0.3°C lower due to methodological differences in baselines and coverage. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions, widespread marine heatwaves in the tropical Pacific, and emerging El Niño conditions drove this sustained warmth. Final NOAA GlobalTemp and NASA GISTEMP releases expected mid-May could prompt minor revisions if land data adjustments shift the consensus outside this narrow bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$350,894Data zakończenia
May 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 dataset confirms April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—though trader consensus at 96% implied probability for 1.15–1.19°C reflects alignment with cross-verified preliminary readings from NOAA and NASA datasets, which typically report 0.2–0.3°C lower due to methodological differences in baselines and coverage. Elevated sea surface temperatures, the second-highest on record outside polar regions, widespread marine heatwaves in the tropical Pacific, and emerging El Niño conditions drove this sustained warmth. Final NOAA GlobalTemp and NASA GISTEMP releases expected mid-May could prompt minor revisions if land data adjustments shift the consensus outside this narrow bin.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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