Francesca Hong's position as the polling frontrunner in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, driven by strong support among progressive voters, shapes the market's pricing on her margin of victory. Multiple late candidate withdrawals, including Mandela Barnes on July 30 and earlier exits by Sara Rodriguez and others, have narrowed the field to Hong, David Crowley, Joel Brennan, and Kelda Roys, yet recent Marquette Law School polling shows Hong at 38% amid high undecided shares around one-third. Crowley's re-entry after a brief suspension, bolstered by fundraising edges in July and an endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers, has consolidated some moderate support but failed to close the gap in head-to-head trends. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and how undecided Democratic primary voters will break in the closing hours, producing dispersed probabilities across Hong's victory margins rather than a single dominant outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHong 15–20% 20.5%
Hong 20–25% 18.4%
Hong 10–15% 14.5%
Hong 5–10% 12.0%
$125,440 Wol.
$125,440 Wol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
10%
Hong 25–30%
12%
Hong 20–25%
18%
Hong 15–20%
20%
Hong 10–15%
15%
Hong 5–10%
12%
Hong <5%
8%
Crowley wins
4%
Barnes wins
<1%
Hong 15–20% 20.5%
Hong 20–25% 18.4%
Hong 10–15% 14.5%
Hong 5–10% 12.0%
$125,440 Wol.
$125,440 Wol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
$63,637 Wol.
10%
Hong 25–30%
$34,567 Wol.
12%
Hong 20–25%
$5,209 Wol.
18%
Hong 15–20%
$1,896 Wol.
20%
Hong 10–15%
$3,420 Wol.
15%
Hong 5–10%
$10,304 Wol.
12%
Hong <5%
$3,058 Wol.
8%
Crowley wins
$2,445 Wol.
4%
Barnes wins
$903 Wol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Francesca Hong's position as the polling frontrunner in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, driven by strong support among progressive voters, shapes the market's pricing on her margin of victory. Multiple late candidate withdrawals, including Mandela Barnes on July 30 and earlier exits by Sara Rodriguez and others, have narrowed the field to Hong, David Crowley, Joel Brennan, and Kelda Roys, yet recent Marquette Law School polling shows Hong at 38% amid high undecided shares around one-third. Crowley's re-entry after a brief suspension, bolstered by fundraising edges in July and an endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers, has consolidated some moderate support but failed to close the gap in head-to-head trends. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and how undecided Democratic primary voters will break in the closing hours, producing dispersed probabilities across Hong's victory margins rather than a single dominant outcome.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ET
Wolumen
$125,440Data zakończenia
Aug 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Francesca Hong's position as the polling frontrunner in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, driven by strong support among progressive voters, shapes the market's pricing on her margin of victory. Multiple late candidate withdrawals, including Mandela Barnes on July 30 and earlier exits by Sara Rodriguez and others, have narrowed the field to Hong, David Crowley, Joel Brennan, and Kelda Roys, yet recent Marquette Law School polling shows Hong at 38% amid high undecided shares around one-third. Crowley's re-entry after a brief suspension, bolstered by fundraising edges in July and an endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers, has consolidated some moderate support but failed to close the gap in head-to-head trends. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and how undecided Democratic primary voters will break in the closing hours, producing dispersed probabilities across Hong's victory margins rather than a single dominant outcome.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Wolumen
$125,440Data zakończenia
Aug 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Francesca Hong's position as the polling frontrunner in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, driven by strong support among progressive voters, shapes the market's pricing on her margin of victory. Multiple late candidate withdrawals, including Mandela Barnes on July 30 and earlier exits by Sara Rodriguez and others, have narrowed the field to Hong, David Crowley, Joel Brennan, and Kelda Roys, yet recent Marquette Law School polling shows Hong at 38% amid high undecided shares around one-third. Crowley's re-entry after a brief suspension, bolstered by fundraising edges in July and an endorsement from outgoing Governor Tony Evers, has consolidated some moderate support but failed to close the gap in head-to-head trends. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over final turnout and how undecided Democratic primary voters will break in the closing hours, producing dispersed probabilities across Hong's victory margins rather than a single dominant outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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