Incumbent Republican Michael Guest faces Democratic challenger Michael Chiaradio and Libertarian Erik Kiehle in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. The district carries a Republican Partisan Voting Index of R+14 and has produced consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, with all four Mississippi House seats rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded unopposed in March, leaving limited campaign activity or polling shifts to alter baseline expectations. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Republican margins between 20 and 35 percent, reflecting historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive dynamics that could compress the spread. A narrower result would require unusually strong Democratic mobilization or unexpected national tailwinds, while wider margins remain possible if Republican turnout holds at midterm levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMS-03 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
MS-03 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Republican 20-25% 19%
Republican 30-35% 15%
Republican 10-15% 13%
Republican 25-30% 12.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 40%+
7%
Republican 35-40%
7%
Republican 30-35%
15%
Republican 25-30%
13%
Republican 20-25%
19%
Republican 15-20%
12%
Republican 10-15%
13%
Republican 0-10%
6%
Democrat Wins
4%
Republican 20-25% 19%
Republican 30-35% 15%
Republican 10-15% 13%
Republican 25-30% 12.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 40%+
$109 Wol.
7%
Republican 35-40%
$51 Wol.
7%
Republican 30-35%
$72 Wol.
15%
Republican 25-30%
$135 Wol.
13%
Republican 20-25%
$319 Wol.
19%
Republican 15-20%
$56 Wol.
12%
Republican 10-15%
$49 Wol.
13%
Republican 0-10%
$511 Wol.
6%
Democrat Wins
$22 Wol.
4%
The first round of the 2026 MS-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Michael Guest faces Democratic challenger Michael Chiaradio and Libertarian Erik Kiehle in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. The district carries a Republican Partisan Voting Index of R+14 and has produced consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, with all four Mississippi House seats rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded unopposed in March, leaving limited campaign activity or polling shifts to alter baseline expectations. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Republican margins between 20 and 35 percent, reflecting historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive dynamics that could compress the spread. A narrower result would require unusually strong Democratic mobilization or unexpected national tailwinds, while wider margins remain possible if Republican turnout holds at midterm levels.
The first round of the 2026 MS-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 11:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,323Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 11:57 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 MS-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Michael Guest faces Democratic challenger Michael Chiaradio and Libertarian Erik Kiehle in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. The district carries a Republican Partisan Voting Index of R+14 and has produced consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, with all four Mississippi House seats rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded unopposed in March, leaving limited campaign activity or polling shifts to alter baseline expectations. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Republican margins between 20 and 35 percent, reflecting historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive dynamics that could compress the spread. A narrower result would require unusually strong Democratic mobilization or unexpected national tailwinds, while wider margins remain possible if Republican turnout holds at midterm levels.
The first round of the 2026 MS-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,323Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 11:57 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Michael Guest faces Democratic challenger Michael Chiaradio and Libertarian Erik Kiehle in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district general election on November 3, 2026. The district carries a Republican Partisan Voting Index of R+14 and has produced consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, with all four Mississippi House seats rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded unopposed in March, leaving limited campaign activity or polling shifts to alter baseline expectations. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Republican margins between 20 and 35 percent, reflecting historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive dynamics that could compress the spread. A narrower result would require unusually strong Democratic mobilization or unexpected national tailwinds, while wider margins remain possible if Republican turnout holds at midterm levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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