With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano130m+ 44%
120-125m 36%
<85m 19.4%
115-120m 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
19%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
1%
100-105m
4%
105-110m
6%
110-115m
13%
115-120m
15%
120-125m
36%
125-130m
21%
130m+
29%
130m+ 44%
120-125m 36%
<85m 19.4%
115-120m 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
<85m
$386 Wol.
19%
85-90m
$419 Wol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,552 Wol.
1%
95-100m
$269 Wol.
1%
100-105m
$809 Wol.
4%
105-110m
$436 Wol.
6%
110-115m
$549 Wol.
13%
115-120m
$1,081 Wol.
15%
120-125m
$408 Wol.
36%
125-130m
$1,204 Wol.
21%
130m+
$318 Wol.
29%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,430Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Wolumen
$7,430Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With Republican control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities heading into the 2026 midterms, trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots reflects uncertainty over base mobilization amid President Trump's net-negative approval ratings and a Democratic generic-ballot edge. Most districts remain non-competitive following recent redistricting, which historically dampens overall participation compared to more contested cycles. Recent special-election results highlight an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats in lower-turnout settings, while youth surveys show elevated intent among Democrats but lower engagement among independents. These dynamics, alongside longstanding patterns of midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels, keep probabilities tightly clustered without clear separation until closer to November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania