Name: How many jobs added in December?
Start: 2024-12-11T21:17:25.833663Z
End: 2025-01-15T12:00:00Z

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This is a negrisk market group over how many nonfarm payroll jobs the US will add in December 2024 according to the BLS.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains between 100,000 (inclusive) and 150,000 (exclusive) in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

100-150k

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains less than 100,000 in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

<100k

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains between 150,000 (inclusive) and 200,000 (exclusive) in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

150-200k

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains between 200,000 (inclusive) and 250,000 (exclusive) in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

200-250k

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains between 250,000 (inclusive) and 300,000 (inclusive) in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

250-300k

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains more than 300,000 in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

>300k

Toegevoegde banen

How many jobs added in December?

This is a negrisk group over how many jobs the United States will add in October according to the BLS.

How many jobs added in October?

This is a market on predicting the number of jobs added in January.

How many jobs added in January?

This is a negrisk market group over how any nonfarm payroll jobs the US added in November 2025 according to the BLS.

How many jobs added in November?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for February, scheduled to be released on March 7, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm


How many jobs added in February?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March, scheduled to be released on April 4, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

How many jobs added in March?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2025, scheduled to be released on May 2, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

How many jobs added in April?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2025, scheduled to be released on June 6, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm


How many jobs added in May?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2025, scheduled to be released on July 3, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

How many jobs added in June?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2025, scheduled to be released on August 1, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

How many jobs added in July?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2025, scheduled to be released on October 3, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for September is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

How many jobs added in September?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November 2025, scheduled to be released on December 16, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for November is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Note: If the October and November nonfarm payroll employment data are combined and not clearly separated in the report scheduled for December 16, 2025, this market will resolve according to the total number of jobs added/lost in October and November.

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for December 2025, scheduled to be released on January 9, 2026, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for December is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Hoeveel banen zijn er in december bijgekomen?

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for January 2026, scheduled to be released on February 6, 2026, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for December is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Hoeveel banen zijn er in januari toegevoegd?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. 

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Zal de Amerikaanse werkloosheid in 2026 ten minste 5,0% bereiken?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS stelt nog een CPI-publicatie uit voor 2027?

This market will resolve according to the Eurozone GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025" flash release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Zal de BBP-groei van de eurozone in het vierde kwartaal van 2025 tussen 1,0 en 1,5% liggen?

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for February 12, 2026, 7:00 AM.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Zal de bbp-groei van het VK in het vierde kwartaal van 2025 tussen 1,0% en 1,5% liggen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Zal de inflatie in 2026 boven de 3% uitkomen?

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Zal de BBP-groei van Mexico in Q4 2025 tussen 0,5% en 1,0% liggen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Brazilië werkloosheid onder 6,3% voor Q4 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negatieve BBP-groei in 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negatieve bbp-groei in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Zal de groei van het Duitse BBP in Q4 2025 exact 0,4% zijn?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765).  The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/6)


Zal de mediane woningwaarde in de VS op 1 februari hoger zijn dan $418.000?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

VS-recessie tegen eind 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed renteverhoging in 2026?

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in the U.K., before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) changed by in December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly ONS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 1-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

Zal de maandelijkse inflatie van het VK in december ≥0,3% zijn?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly ONS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

Zal de jaarlijkse inflatie van het VK in december met ≥3,4% stijgen?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

How many jobs added in December?

<100k
$32,583 Vol.
No

100-150k
$11,992 Vol.
No

150-200k
$15,510 Vol.
No

200-250k
$10,539 Vol.
No

250-300k
$12,531 Vol.
Yes

>300k
$144,807 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

How many jobs added in December?

Regels

How many jobs added in December?

Marktcontext

How many jobs added in December?

Over

How many jobs added in December?

<100k$32,583 Vol.No

100-150k$11,992 Vol.No

150-200k$15,510 Vol.No

200-250k$10,539 Vol.No

250-300k$12,531 Vol.Yes

>300k$144,807 Vol.No

Marktcontext

How many jobs added in December?

Regels

How many jobs added in December?

Marktcontext

How many jobs added in December?

Over

<100k
$32,583 Vol.
No

100-150k
$11,992 Vol.
No

150-200k
$15,510 Vol.
No

200-250k
$10,539 Vol.
No

250-300k
$12,531 Vol.
Yes

>300k
$144,807 Vol.
No