Fed predictions & odds

·
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed

Politics

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

46%

Kevin Warsh

$240m Vol.

$11m today

$7m Liq.

611

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in January?

Fed

Politics

Fed decision in January?

98%

No change

$445m Vol.

$11m today

$21m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 6 days

Fed decision in March?

Fed

Politics

Fed decision in March?

80%

No change

$3m Vol.

$260k today

$572k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed

Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

27%

3 (75 bps)

$3m Vol.

$71.6k today

$851k Liq.

30

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed

Finance

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

98%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$968k Vol.

$83.8k Liq.

15

Ends in 9 days

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed

Finance

Fed rate cut by...?

61%

June Meeting

$428k Vol.

$99.5k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

What day will Trump announce Fed Chair nominee?

Fed

Politics

What day will Trump announce Fed Chair nominee?

59%

No announcement by Jan 31

$330k Vol.

$130k Liq.

4

Ends in 9 days

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed

Politics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

22%

3.0%

$63.9k Vol.

$190k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Fed

Finance

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

48%

4.4%

$57.1k Vol.

$16.3k Liq.

7

Ends in 2 months

Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?

Fed

Politics

Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?

99%

June 30, 2026

$324k Vol.

$30.6k Liq.

14

Ends in 9 days

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

Fed

Politics

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

41%

≤49

$26.4k Vol.

$8.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed

Politics

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

8%

May 14

$588k Vol.

$131k Liq.

26

Ends in 4 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed

Politics

Fed decision in April?

73%

No change

$739k Vol.

$352k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

Fed

Politics

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

1%

$97.8k Vol.

$28.8k Liq.

2

Ends in 9 days

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed

Politics

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

94%

↓ 3.25%

$466k Vol.

$141k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Major rate cut chances under each Fed Chair?

Fed

Politics

Major rate cut chances under each Fed Chair?

24%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$7.0k Vol.

$102k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed

Finance

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

75%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$486k Vol.

$93.9k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed

Politics

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

73%

December 31

$66.1k Vol.

$11.4k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?

Fed

Politics

US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?

17%

US Strikes Iran

$25.1k Vol.

$3.7k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed

Trump

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

34%

$19.6k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

2

Ends in 9 days