The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus driven by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and a 0.9% month-over-month rise signaling stickiness well above the 2% target. Resilient labor markets, evidenced by unemployment dipping to 4.3% in March, further bolster the pause, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments on elevated economic uncertainty. This positioning could face challenges from upcoming May nonfarm payrolls or April CPI data showing sharp cooling or labor weakening, potentially reviving rate cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Polymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus driven by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and a 0.9% month-over-month rise signaling stickiness well above the 2% target. Resilient labor markets, evidenced by unemployment dipping to 4.3% in March, further bolster the pause, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments on elevated economic uncertainty. This positioning could face challenges from upcoming May nonfarm payrolls or April CPI data showing sharp cooling or labor weakening, potentially reviving rate cut odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
J.P. Morgan Global Research releases a note stating “the current holding pattern is likely to continue through the rest of 2026,” further cementing market confidence in a June hold
J.P. Morgan Global Research releases a note stating “the current holding pattern is likely to continue through the rest of 2026,” further cementing market confidence in a June hold
May 2 2026
Reuters reports that CME FedWatch tool shows a 70% probability of no change at the June meeting, the highest since March, prompting a surge toward the “No change” bracket
No change rises to 96%3%
Reuters reports that CME FedWatch tool shows a 70% probability of no change at the June meeting, the highest since March, prompting a surge toward the “No change” bracket
May 1 2026
April CPI and May employment data release expected to be critical;
25 bps decrease rises to 3%1%
market remains skeptical of a June cut as inflation remains sticky and labor market stable, keeping 25 bps cut probability near 3%
Apr 30 2026
Market expectations for a 25 bps increase fall to 1% as Fed signals continued caution on rate hikes, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation persistence and economic growth uncertainties
25 bps increase dips to 1%1%
The sustained dovish tone and lack of new hawkish signals led to near elimination of the 25 bps increase probability approaching the June meeting.
Apr 29 2026
FOMC statement maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, citing Middle East developments increasing economic uncertainty and inflation risks, reinforcing market expectations against a large
50+ bps increase dips to 0%1%
FOMC statement maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, citing Middle East developments increasing economic uncertainty and inflation risks, reinforcing market expectations against a large rate hike in June
Apr 28 2026
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50‑3.75% in the April 28‑29 meeting;
No change rises to 90%4%
the statement notes “inflation easing but still above target,” reinforcing the June‑hold narrative
Apr 23 2026
Market analysis highlights Fed's data-dependent approach with inflation still above target and labor market showing resilience;
25 bps decrease dips to 2%2%
Fed chair transition uncertainty and sticky inflation push market odds for June cut near all-time lows
Apr 1 2026
Core inflation holds steady at 2.6% annual rate in December 2025 with soft CPI gains;
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
labor market shows cooling but unemployment remains above 4%, affirming Fed's focus on inflation risks over aggressive easing
Mar 19 2026
Market Fully
50+ bps decrease dips to 1%3%
By March, Fed communications and economic data confirmed a cautious, data-dependent policy with no clear path to large cuts. Inflation remained sticky, and labor market resilience kept expectations for a 50+ bps decrease near zero.
Mar 18 2026
Fed publishes its March 2026 dot‑plot, with 75% of participants projecting “no change” for the June meeting and only one quarter‑point cut expected later in the year
No change jumps to 57%5%
Fed publishes its March 2026 dot‑plot, with 75% of participants projecting “no change” for the June meeting and only one quarter‑point cut expected later in the year
Mar 9 2026
U.S.-Israeli war escalation with Iran and spiking oil
25 bps decrease dips to 6%2%
U.S.-Israeli war escalation with Iran and spiking oil
Mar 7 2026
Rising geopolitical tensions and oil
25 bps decrease plunges to 8%22%
Rising geopolitical tensions and oil
Mar 4 2026
Fed officials and market analysts highlight a divided outlook on future policy, with some expecting additional rate cuts while others foresee no change, amid slowing job growth and persistent inflation above target
25 bps increase rises to 5%2%
This mixed messaging briefly raised the probability of a 25 bps increase as markets weighed the possibility of policy tightening versus easing.
Feb 18 2026
Treasury Department announces a temporary suspension of certain economic data releases due to a government shutdown, creating “stale data” concerns that push the market toward a
No change jumps to 44%7%
Treasury Department announces a temporary suspension of certain economic data releases due to a government shutdown, creating “stale data” concerns that push the market toward a cautious hold in June
Feb 14 2026
Federal Reserve reports steady economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to global energy
50+ bps increase dips to 1%1%
Federal Reserve reports steady economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to global energy
Feb 11 2026
Strong Labor Market Data and Persistent Inflation Reduce Odds of Large Rate Cuts
50+ bps decrease drops to 5%6%
Economic reports showed continued job growth and inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates aggressively. Market participants adjusted probabilities downward accordingly.
Feb 11 2026
Strong January jobs report shows 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falls to 4.3%, surprising markets and pushing probability of a June cut below 50%;
U.S. CPI for January released at 0.2% YoY, well below the 2% target, prompting traders to
No change plunges to 31%15%
U.S. CPI for January released at 0.2% YoY, well below the 2% target, prompting traders to
Jan 28 2026
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026 after three cuts in 2025, with two dissenters favoring a cut;
25 bps decrease dips to 40%4%
inflation remains above target and labor market stabilizes, reducing immediate pressure for further cuts
Jan 28 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions, which cloud the economic outlook and inflation trajectory
25 bps increase dips to 4%2%
The Fed’s decision to pause rate changes amid external risks further diminished the likelihood of a rate increase in June.
Jan 15 2026
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, emphasizing “inflation remains above target while labor market cools,” which bolsters expectations of a pause through mid‑year
No change dips to 45%3%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, emphasizing “inflation remains above target while labor market cools,” which bolsters expectations of a pause through mid‑year
Jan 2 2026
December Federal Reserve Meeting Confirms Third Consecutive 25 bps Cut but Highlights Divided Vote and Data Uncertainty
50+ bps decrease dips to 8%3%
The December meeting summary revealed a 9-3 vote for the rate cut and noted limited economic data due to prior government shutdowns, emphasizing the Fed’s cautious stance. The divided committee and data uncertainty lowered expectations for larger cuts in early 2026.
Dec 30 2025
Federal Reserve minutes reveal concerns about tightening liquidity in short-term funding markets despite stable interest rates, with officials considering measures to maintain ample reserves without changing policy stance
The Fed’s focus on liquidity risks rather than rate hikes reinforced expectations of a cautious approach, keeping the 25 bps increase probability low.
Dec 30 2025
Fed minutes reveal a tight split among officials over the December rate cut, with some favoring steady rates due to stalled inflation progress, indicating limited appetite for
50+ bps increase dips to 0%4%
Fed minutes reveal a tight split among officials over the December rate cut, with some favoring steady rates due to stalled inflation progress, indicating limited appetite for large rate increases soon
Dec 11 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, the third cut that year, signaling one more cut expected in 2026;
25 bps decrease dips to 40%2%
Fed also resumes Treasury bill purchases to add liquidity
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% amid ongoing inflation and employment uncertainties, marking the third consecutive rate cut and signaling a dovish stance for 2026
25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%
This decisive rate cut and dovish commentary lowered market expectations for rate increases in the near term, causing a sharp drop in the 25 bps increase probability.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid labor market weakness and inflation risks;
50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%
dissenting votes highlight uncertainty about future hikes
Dec 10 2025
Fed’s December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections shows three members still expecting a 2026 hike, but the median outlook points to only one 25‑bp cut after June, signalling a
No change drops to 43%14%
Fed’s December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections shows three members still expecting a 2026 hike, but the median outlook points to only one 25‑bp cut after June, signalling a likely hold in the upcoming meeting
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points for the Third Time in 2025
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and employment data. Despite the cut, the Fed emphasized that further reductions were not guaranteed without clear economic improvements, tempering expectations for larger cuts and causing a moderate drop in the 50+ bps decrease probability.
Dec 1 2025
Bank of America shifts forecast to expect a December Fed rate cut, citing the need to support consumers amid a K-shaped economy and mixed inflation signals; markets
25 bps decrease drops to 42%8%
Bank of America shifts forecast to expect a December Fed rate cut, citing the need to support consumers amid a K-shaped economy and mixed inflation signals; markets
Nov 13 2025
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns December Rate Cut Is “Not a Foregone Conclusion” Amid Fed Divisions
50+ bps decrease dips to 8%2%
Powell cautioned that a December rate cut was uncertain, urging caution due to persistent inflation and a still-strong labor market. This hawkish tone reduced optimism for aggressive easing, pushing down the probability of a 50+ bps decrease.
Nov 12 2025
Two Federal Reserve Officials Oppose December Rate Cut, Highlighting Internal Divisions
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%2%
Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic publicly opposed another rate cut in December, citing stubborn inflation and a resilient economy. Their remarks introduced uncertainty about further easing, contributing to a decline in the market's expectation for a large rate cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus driven by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and a 0.9% month-over-month rise signaling stickiness well above the 2% target. Resilient labor markets, evidenced by unemployment dipping to 4.3% in March, further bolster the pause, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments on elevated economic uncertainty. This positioning could face challenges from upcoming May nonfarm payrolls or April CPI data showing sharp cooling or labor weakening, potentially reviving rate cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Polymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus driven by the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and a 0.9% month-over-month rise signaling stickiness well above the 2% target. Resilient labor markets, evidenced by unemployment dipping to 4.3% in March, further bolster the pause, aligning with Chair Powell's recent comments on elevated economic uncertainty. This positioning could face challenges from upcoming May nonfarm payrolls or April CPI data showing sharp cooling or labor weakening, potentially reviving rate cut odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
J.P. Morgan Global Research releases a note stating “the current holding pattern is likely to continue through the rest of 2026,” further cementing market confidence in a June hold
J.P. Morgan Global Research releases a note stating “the current holding pattern is likely to continue through the rest of 2026,” further cementing market confidence in a June hold
May 2 2026
Reuters reports that CME FedWatch tool shows a 70% probability of no change at the June meeting, the highest since March, prompting a surge toward the “No change” bracket
No change rises to 96%3%
Reuters reports that CME FedWatch tool shows a 70% probability of no change at the June meeting, the highest since March, prompting a surge toward the “No change” bracket
May 1 2026
April CPI and May employment data release expected to be critical;
25 bps decrease rises to 3%1%
market remains skeptical of a June cut as inflation remains sticky and labor market stable, keeping 25 bps cut probability near 3%
Apr 30 2026
Market expectations for a 25 bps increase fall to 1% as Fed signals continued caution on rate hikes, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation persistence and economic growth uncertainties
25 bps increase dips to 1%1%
The sustained dovish tone and lack of new hawkish signals led to near elimination of the 25 bps increase probability approaching the June meeting.
Apr 29 2026
FOMC statement maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, citing Middle East developments increasing economic uncertainty and inflation risks, reinforcing market expectations against a large
50+ bps increase dips to 0%1%
FOMC statement maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, citing Middle East developments increasing economic uncertainty and inflation risks, reinforcing market expectations against a large rate hike in June
Apr 28 2026
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50‑3.75% in the April 28‑29 meeting;
No change rises to 90%4%
the statement notes “inflation easing but still above target,” reinforcing the June‑hold narrative
Apr 23 2026
Market analysis highlights Fed's data-dependent approach with inflation still above target and labor market showing resilience;
25 bps decrease dips to 2%2%
Fed chair transition uncertainty and sticky inflation push market odds for June cut near all-time lows
Apr 1 2026
Core inflation holds steady at 2.6% annual rate in December 2025 with soft CPI gains;
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
labor market shows cooling but unemployment remains above 4%, affirming Fed's focus on inflation risks over aggressive easing
Mar 19 2026
Market Fully
50+ bps decrease dips to 1%3%
By March, Fed communications and economic data confirmed a cautious, data-dependent policy with no clear path to large cuts. Inflation remained sticky, and labor market resilience kept expectations for a 50+ bps decrease near zero.
Mar 18 2026
Fed publishes its March 2026 dot‑plot, with 75% of participants projecting “no change” for the June meeting and only one quarter‑point cut expected later in the year
No change jumps to 57%5%
Fed publishes its March 2026 dot‑plot, with 75% of participants projecting “no change” for the June meeting and only one quarter‑point cut expected later in the year
Mar 9 2026
U.S.-Israeli war escalation with Iran and spiking oil
25 bps decrease dips to 6%2%
U.S.-Israeli war escalation with Iran and spiking oil
Mar 7 2026
Rising geopolitical tensions and oil
25 bps decrease plunges to 8%22%
Rising geopolitical tensions and oil
Mar 4 2026
Fed officials and market analysts highlight a divided outlook on future policy, with some expecting additional rate cuts while others foresee no change, amid slowing job growth and persistent inflation above target
25 bps increase rises to 5%2%
This mixed messaging briefly raised the probability of a 25 bps increase as markets weighed the possibility of policy tightening versus easing.
Feb 18 2026
Treasury Department announces a temporary suspension of certain economic data releases due to a government shutdown, creating “stale data” concerns that push the market toward a
No change jumps to 44%7%
Treasury Department announces a temporary suspension of certain economic data releases due to a government shutdown, creating “stale data” concerns that push the market toward a cautious hold in June
Feb 14 2026
Federal Reserve reports steady economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to global energy
50+ bps increase dips to 1%1%
Federal Reserve reports steady economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to global energy
Feb 11 2026
Strong Labor Market Data and Persistent Inflation Reduce Odds of Large Rate Cuts
50+ bps decrease drops to 5%6%
Economic reports showed continued job growth and inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates aggressively. Market participants adjusted probabilities downward accordingly.
Feb 11 2026
Strong January jobs report shows 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falls to 4.3%, surprising markets and pushing probability of a June cut below 50%;
U.S. CPI for January released at 0.2% YoY, well below the 2% target, prompting traders to
No change plunges to 31%15%
U.S. CPI for January released at 0.2% YoY, well below the 2% target, prompting traders to
Jan 28 2026
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026 after three cuts in 2025, with two dissenters favoring a cut;
25 bps decrease dips to 40%4%
inflation remains above target and labor market stabilizes, reducing immediate pressure for further cuts
Jan 28 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions, which cloud the economic outlook and inflation trajectory
25 bps increase dips to 4%2%
The Fed’s decision to pause rate changes amid external risks further diminished the likelihood of a rate increase in June.
Jan 15 2026
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, emphasizing “inflation remains above target while labor market cools,” which bolsters expectations of a pause through mid‑year
No change dips to 45%3%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, emphasizing “inflation remains above target while labor market cools,” which bolsters expectations of a pause through mid‑year
Jan 2 2026
December Federal Reserve Meeting Confirms Third Consecutive 25 bps Cut but Highlights Divided Vote and Data Uncertainty
50+ bps decrease dips to 8%3%
The December meeting summary revealed a 9-3 vote for the rate cut and noted limited economic data due to prior government shutdowns, emphasizing the Fed’s cautious stance. The divided committee and data uncertainty lowered expectations for larger cuts in early 2026.
Dec 30 2025
Federal Reserve minutes reveal concerns about tightening liquidity in short-term funding markets despite stable interest rates, with officials considering measures to maintain ample reserves without changing policy stance
The Fed’s focus on liquidity risks rather than rate hikes reinforced expectations of a cautious approach, keeping the 25 bps increase probability low.
Dec 30 2025
Fed minutes reveal a tight split among officials over the December rate cut, with some favoring steady rates due to stalled inflation progress, indicating limited appetite for
50+ bps increase dips to 0%4%
Fed minutes reveal a tight split among officials over the December rate cut, with some favoring steady rates due to stalled inflation progress, indicating limited appetite for large rate increases soon
Dec 11 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, the third cut that year, signaling one more cut expected in 2026;
25 bps decrease dips to 40%2%
Fed also resumes Treasury bill purchases to add liquidity
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% amid ongoing inflation and employment uncertainties, marking the third consecutive rate cut and signaling a dovish stance for 2026
25 bps increase plunges to 6%19%
This decisive rate cut and dovish commentary lowered market expectations for rate increases in the near term, causing a sharp drop in the 25 bps increase probability.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid labor market weakness and inflation risks;
50+ bps increase drops to 4%6%
dissenting votes highlight uncertainty about future hikes
Dec 10 2025
Fed’s December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections shows three members still expecting a 2026 hike, but the median outlook points to only one 25‑bp cut after June, signalling a
No change drops to 43%14%
Fed’s December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections shows three members still expecting a 2026 hike, but the median outlook points to only one 25‑bp cut after June, signalling a likely hold in the upcoming meeting
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points for the Third Time in 2025
50+ bps decrease dips to 12%4%
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and employment data. Despite the cut, the Fed emphasized that further reductions were not guaranteed without clear economic improvements, tempering expectations for larger cuts and causing a moderate drop in the 50+ bps decrease probability.
Dec 1 2025
Bank of America shifts forecast to expect a December Fed rate cut, citing the need to support consumers amid a K-shaped economy and mixed inflation signals; markets
25 bps decrease drops to 42%8%
Bank of America shifts forecast to expect a December Fed rate cut, citing the need to support consumers amid a K-shaped economy and mixed inflation signals; markets
Nov 13 2025
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns December Rate Cut Is “Not a Foregone Conclusion” Amid Fed Divisions
50+ bps decrease dips to 8%2%
Powell cautioned that a December rate cut was uncertain, urging caution due to persistent inflation and a still-strong labor market. This hawkish tone reduced optimism for aggressive easing, pushing down the probability of a 50+ bps decrease.
Nov 12 2025
Two Federal Reserve Officials Oppose December Rate Cut, Highlighting Internal Divisions
50+ bps decrease dips to 10%2%
Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic publicly opposed another rate cut in December, citing stubborn inflation and a resilient economy. Their remarks introduced uncertainty about further easing, contributing to a decline in the market's expectation for a large rate cut.
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Frequently Asked Questions
"Fed Decision in June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 96%, followed by "25 bps decrease" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Fed Decision in June?" has generated $19 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Fed Decision in June?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Fed Decision in June?" is "No change" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25 bps decrease" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Fed Decision in June?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed Decision in June?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $19 million traded on “Fed Decision in June?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Fed Decision in June?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 96¢ for "No change" in the "Fed Decision in June?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 96% chance that "No change" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 96¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 4¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Fed Decision in June?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 17, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Fed Decision in June?" market has an active community of 8,160 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed Decision in June?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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