Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, with Chair Powell highlighting elevated core PCE near 3.0% and rising energy costs from Middle East tensions pushing oil toward $100 per barrel, potentially leaking into core inflation. Strong recent nonfarm payrolls and unemployment holding near 4.4% have slashed odds for a 25 basis point cut to 9.5%, while hikes remain negligible below 3%. Markets await April CPI and jobs data ahead of the May meeting, with the Fed's dot plot signaling just one cut sometime in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 88%
25 bps decrease 10%
25 bps increase 1.8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$6,114,053 Vol.
$6,114,053 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
88%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 88%
25 bps decrease 10%
25 bps increase 1.8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$6,114,053 Vol.
$6,114,053 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,740,655 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$948,407 Vol.
10%
No change
$1,252,471 Vol.
88%
25 bps increase
$1,180,657 Vol.
2%
50+ bps increase
$991,863 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, with Chair Powell highlighting elevated core PCE near 3.0% and rising energy costs from Middle East tensions pushing oil toward $100 per barrel, potentially leaking into core inflation. Strong recent nonfarm payrolls and unemployment holding near 4.4% have slashed odds for a 25 basis point cut to 9.5%, while hikes remain negligible below 3%. Markets await April CPI and jobs data ahead of the May meeting, with the Fed's dot plot signaling just one cut sometime in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$6,114,053End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, with Chair Powell highlighting elevated core PCE near 3.0% and rising energy costs from Middle East tensions pushing oil toward $100 per barrel, potentially leaking into core inflation. Strong recent nonfarm payrolls and unemployment holding near 4.4% have slashed odds for a 25 basis point cut to 9.5%, while hikes remain negligible below 3%. Markets await April CPI and jobs data ahead of the May meeting, with the Fed's dot plot signaling just one cut sometime in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$6,114,053End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, with Chair Powell highlighting elevated core PCE near 3.0% and rising energy costs from Middle East tensions pushing oil toward $100 per barrel, potentially leaking into core inflation. Strong recent nonfarm payrolls and unemployment holding near 4.4% have slashed odds for a 25 basis point cut to 9.5%, while hikes remain negligible below 3%. Markets await April CPI and jobs data ahead of the May meeting, with the Fed's dot plot signaling just one cut sometime in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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