Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change to the ECB deposit rate at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, mirroring the steady policy since February amid March inflation rising to 2.6%—up from 1.9%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, offset by subdued 0.9% eurozone GDP growth projections. President Lagarde's April 20 remarks stressed awaiting further data on inflation persistence, wage trends, and economic uncertainty before shifts, with March meeting minutes affirming prudent caution despite hawkish signals. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves slim room for hikes or cuts absent sharper inflation surges, escalated oil volatility, or abrupt growth deterioration in incoming flash PMIs or April HICP data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB Interest Rates: April 2026
ECB Interest Rates: April 2026
No change 97.9%
Increase 2.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$811,187 Vol.
$811,187 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
98%
Increase
2%
No change 97.9%
Increase 2.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$811,187 Vol.
$811,187 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$154,874 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$119,680 Vol.
<1%
No change
$269,899 Vol.
98%
Increase
$266,733 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change to the ECB deposit rate at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, mirroring the steady policy since February amid March inflation rising to 2.6%—up from 1.9%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, offset by subdued 0.9% eurozone GDP growth projections. President Lagarde's April 20 remarks stressed awaiting further data on inflation persistence, wage trends, and economic uncertainty before shifts, with March meeting minutes affirming prudent caution despite hawkish signals. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves slim room for hikes or cuts absent sharper inflation surges, escalated oil volatility, or abrupt growth deterioration in incoming flash PMIs or April HICP data.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$811,187End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change to the ECB deposit rate at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, mirroring the steady policy since February amid March inflation rising to 2.6%—up from 1.9%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, offset by subdued 0.9% eurozone GDP growth projections. President Lagarde's April 20 remarks stressed awaiting further data on inflation persistence, wage trends, and economic uncertainty before shifts, with March meeting minutes affirming prudent caution despite hawkish signals. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves slim room for hikes or cuts absent sharper inflation surges, escalated oil volatility, or abrupt growth deterioration in incoming flash PMIs or April HICP data.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$811,187End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no change to the ECB deposit rate at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, mirroring the steady policy since February amid March inflation rising to 2.6%—up from 1.9%—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict, offset by subdued 0.9% eurozone GDP growth projections. President Lagarde's April 20 remarks stressed awaiting further data on inflation persistence, wage trends, and economic uncertainty before shifts, with March meeting minutes affirming prudent caution despite hawkish signals. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves slim room for hikes or cuts absent sharper inflation surges, escalated oil volatility, or abrupt growth deterioration in incoming flash PMIs or April HICP data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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