The Bank of Russia’s April 24, 2026, 50-basis-point cut to a 14.50% key rate, combined with headline inflation easing to 5.7% and underlying price pressures holding near 4–5% annualized, anchors the 73% market-implied probability of another decrease at the July 25 meeting. Central bank guidance emphasizes assessing the durability of disinflation, inflation expectations, and external-fiscal risks before further easing, aligning with its baseline forecast for a 14.0–14.5% average policy rate in 2026 and 4.5–5.5% year-end inflation. Elevated uncertainty around fiscal parameters and the external environment supports the 23% odds of no change, while an increase remains remote at 2.6%. The June 19 decision and incoming CPI data represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.