The Bank of Russia’s April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.50 percent, its eighth consecutive reduction from the 21 percent peak, combined with April CPI easing to 5.6 percent year-over-year, underpins the 72.5 percent market-implied probability of a further decrease at the July 24 meeting. This aligns with the central bank’s baseline scenario for a 14.0–14.5 percent average key rate and 4.5–5.5 percent inflation in 2026, as underlying price pressures have stabilized near 4–5 percent annualized after one-off VAT effects. Elevated pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus, external conditions, and still-high inflation expectations sustain the 23 percent odds of no change, while the 2.5 percent chance of an increase reflects the ongoing disinflation path. Traders will focus on the June 19 decision and subsequent inflation data for signals on whether easing continues or pauses.