Sustained disinflation, with Russia's April 2026 CPI easing to 5.6% year-over-year, and the Bank of Russia's updated baseline forecast for an average key rate of 14.0–14.5% in 2026 underpin the 73% market-implied probability of a July 24 cut from the current 14.5% level. The central bank has completed eight consecutive reductions since the 2025 peak, citing balanced demand-supply dynamics and room for modestly looser financial conditions, though underlying price pressures remain in the 4–5% annualized range and pro-inflationary risks from fiscal policy and external factors persist. Traders price in a data-dependent path rather than aggressive easing, with June 19 data releases and inflation expectations serving as key near-term swing factors before the July decision.