Texas's 32nd Congressional District underwent mid-decade redistricting in 2025, transforming it from a Democratic-leaning seat—previously won by Julie Johnson in 2024—into an R+8 district per Cook Partisan Voting Index, positioning Republicans as strong favorites in the open 2026 race. Trader consensus reflects this structural shift, with Jace Yarbrough securing the GOP nomination after leading the crowded March 3 primary at 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley dropping the planned May 26 runoff on March 17. Democrat Dan Barrios won his uncontested primary, but the district's partisan lean, Trump endorsement for Yarbrough, and lack of recent polling favoring Democrats sustain the 74.5% implied probability for a Republican victory ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,069 거래량
$26,069 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
76%
민주당
22%
$26,069 거래량
$26,069 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
$25,719 거래량
76%
민주당
$351 거래량
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 32nd Congressional District underwent mid-decade redistricting in 2025, transforming it from a Democratic-leaning seat—previously won by Julie Johnson in 2024—into an R+8 district per Cook Partisan Voting Index, positioning Republicans as strong favorites in the open 2026 race. Trader consensus reflects this structural shift, with Jace Yarbrough securing the GOP nomination after leading the crowded March 3 primary at 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley dropping the planned May 26 runoff on March 17. Democrat Dan Barrios won his uncontested primary, but the district's partisan lean, Trump endorsement for Yarbrough, and lack of recent polling favoring Democrats sustain the 74.5% implied probability for a Republican victory ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
거래량
$26,069종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 32nd Congressional District underwent mid-decade redistricting in 2025, transforming it from a Democratic-leaning seat—previously won by Julie Johnson in 2024—into an R+8 district per Cook Partisan Voting Index, positioning Republicans as strong favorites in the open 2026 race. Trader consensus reflects this structural shift, with Jace Yarbrough securing the GOP nomination after leading the crowded March 3 primary at 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley dropping the planned May 26 runoff on March 17. Democrat Dan Barrios won his uncontested primary, but the district's partisan lean, Trump endorsement for Yarbrough, and lack of recent polling favoring Democrats sustain the 74.5% implied probability for a Republican victory ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,069종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 32nd Congressional District underwent mid-decade redistricting in 2025, transforming it from a Democratic-leaning seat—previously won by Julie Johnson in 2024—into an R+8 district per Cook Partisan Voting Index, positioning Republicans as strong favorites in the open 2026 race. Trader consensus reflects this structural shift, with Jace Yarbrough securing the GOP nomination after leading the crowded March 3 primary at 49% and opponent Ryan Binkley dropping the planned May 26 runoff on March 17. Democrat Dan Barrios won his uncontested primary, but the district's partisan lean, Trump endorsement for Yarbrough, and lack of recent polling favoring Democrats sustain the 74.5% implied probability for a Republican victory ahead of the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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