Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at just 0.5% annualized and March CPI inflation spiking to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—signaling persistent price pressures and economic slowdown risks. With the index hovering near 6,850 after recent record highs above 7,000, higher bands like $7,000-$7,500 (23%) remain competitive, hinging on Q1 earnings beats from megacap tech and potential Fed rate relief from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Geopolitical strains from Middle East conflicts amplify volatility, contrasting Wall Street targets around 7,200-7,600; upcoming April FOMC minutes and employment data will be pivotal swing factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$6,000 미만 33%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000~$6,500 16%
$18,724 거래량
$18,724 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
33%
$6,000~$6,500
16%
$6,500-$7,000
18%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500~$8,000
10%
8,000달러 이상
7%
$6,000 미만 33%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000~$6,500 16%
$18,724 거래량
$18,724 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
$11,566 거래량
33%
$6,000~$6,500
$1,333 거래량
16%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,597 거래량
18%
$7,000-$7,500
$892 거래량
23%
$7,500~$8,000
$1,570 거래량
10%
8,000달러 이상
$1,767 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at just 0.5% annualized and March CPI inflation spiking to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—signaling persistent price pressures and economic slowdown risks. With the index hovering near 6,850 after recent record highs above 7,000, higher bands like $7,000-$7,500 (23%) remain competitive, hinging on Q1 earnings beats from megacap tech and potential Fed rate relief from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Geopolitical strains from Middle East conflicts amplify volatility, contrasting Wall Street targets around 7,200-7,600; upcoming April FOMC minutes and employment data will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
거래량
$18,724종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at just 0.5% annualized and March CPI inflation spiking to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—signaling persistent price pressures and economic slowdown risks. With the index hovering near 6,850 after recent record highs above 7,000, higher bands like $7,000-$7,500 (23%) remain competitive, hinging on Q1 earnings beats from megacap tech and potential Fed rate relief from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Geopolitical strains from Middle East conflicts amplify volatility, contrasting Wall Street targets around 7,200-7,600; upcoming April FOMC minutes and employment data will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$18,724종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid recent downward revisions to Q4 2025 GDP growth at just 0.5% annualized and March CPI inflation spiking to 3.3%—the highest since May 2024—signaling persistent price pressures and economic slowdown risks. With the index hovering near 6,850 after recent record highs above 7,000, higher bands like $7,000-$7,500 (23%) remain competitive, hinging on Q1 earnings beats from megacap tech and potential Fed rate relief from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Geopolitical strains from Middle East conflicts amplify volatility, contrasting Wall Street targets around 7,200-7,600; upcoming April FOMC minutes and employment data will be pivotal swing factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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