Recent trader positioning on the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflects balanced bets between continued earnings-driven gains and risks from sticky inflation plus potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. With the index trading near 7,500 in mid-June after a roughly 10% year-to-date advance, consensus Wall Street targets cluster between 7,600 and 8,000 on projected 25% full-year earnings growth. However, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, tariff pass-through effects, and recent Fed signals of possible tightening have tempered optimism, supporting the spread across $6,500–$8,000 buckets. Market-implied odds capture this uncertainty, with the >$8,000 outcome leading modestly amid resilient corporate results offset by policy and macro headwinds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트8,000달러 이상 29%
$7,500~$8,000 20%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 13%
$30,420 거래량
$30,420 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
12%
$6,000~$6,500
12%
$6,500-$7,000
13%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500~$8,000
20%
8,000달러 이상
29%
8,000달러 이상 29%
$7,500~$8,000 20%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 13%
$30,420 거래량
$30,420 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
$17,468 거래량
12%
$6,000~$6,500
$1,838 거래량
12%
$6,500-$7,000
$3,147 거래량
13%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,640 거래량
19%
$7,500~$8,000
$3,024 거래량
20%
8,000달러 이상
$3,303 거래량
29%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent trader positioning on the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflects balanced bets between continued earnings-driven gains and risks from sticky inflation plus potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. With the index trading near 7,500 in mid-June after a roughly 10% year-to-date advance, consensus Wall Street targets cluster between 7,600 and 8,000 on projected 25% full-year earnings growth. However, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, tariff pass-through effects, and recent Fed signals of possible tightening have tempered optimism, supporting the spread across $6,500–$8,000 buckets. Market-implied odds capture this uncertainty, with the >$8,000 outcome leading modestly amid resilient corporate results offset by policy and macro headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
거래량
$30,420종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent trader positioning on the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflects balanced bets between continued earnings-driven gains and risks from sticky inflation plus potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. With the index trading near 7,500 in mid-June after a roughly 10% year-to-date advance, consensus Wall Street targets cluster between 7,600 and 8,000 on projected 25% full-year earnings growth. However, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, tariff pass-through effects, and recent Fed signals of possible tightening have tempered optimism, supporting the spread across $6,500–$8,000 buckets. Market-implied odds capture this uncertainty, with the >$8,000 outcome leading modestly amid resilient corporate results offset by policy and macro headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$30,420종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETRecent trader positioning on the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close reflects balanced bets between continued earnings-driven gains and risks from sticky inflation plus potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. With the index trading near 7,500 in mid-June after a roughly 10% year-to-date advance, consensus Wall Street targets cluster between 7,600 and 8,000 on projected 25% full-year earnings growth. However, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, tariff pass-through effects, and recent Fed signals of possible tightening have tempered optimism, supporting the spread across $6,500–$8,000 buckets. Market-implied odds capture this uncertainty, with the >$8,000 outcome leading modestly amid resilient corporate results offset by policy and macro headwinds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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