Polymarket traders price a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with 27% implied probability for $6,500-$7,000 edging out 25.5% for $6,000-$6,500 and 24% for $7,000-$7,500, reflecting balanced risks from current levels near 7,370 amid sticky inflation and Fed caution versus robust earnings momentum. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—prompting the Federal Reserve to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, delaying anticipated rate cuts and pressuring valuations despite record Q1 net margins at 13.4% and 28% earnings growth. Key differentiators include sustained 15-17% 2026 EPS expansion (per FactSet consensus) versus Middle East tensions elevating oil and geopolitical volatility; upcoming nonfarm payrolls and June FOMC could sway the crowded mid-6,000s consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$6,500-$7,000 29%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$6,000 미만 21%
$6,000~$6,500 15%
$24,514 거래량
$24,514 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
21%
$6,000~$6,500
20%
$6,500-$7,000
29%
$7,000-$7,500
27%
$7,500~$8,000
14%
8,000달러 이상
14%
$6,500-$7,000 29%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$6,000 미만 21%
$6,000~$6,500 15%
$24,514 거래량
$24,514 거래량
2026.12.31
$6,000 미만
$15,395 거래량
21%
$6,000~$6,500
$1,429 거래량
20%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,328 거래량
29%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 거래량
27%
$7,500~$8,000
$2,009 거래량
14%
8,000달러 이상
$2,240 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with 27% implied probability for $6,500-$7,000 edging out 25.5% for $6,000-$6,500 and 24% for $7,000-$7,500, reflecting balanced risks from current levels near 7,370 amid sticky inflation and Fed caution versus robust earnings momentum. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—prompting the Federal Reserve to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, delaying anticipated rate cuts and pressuring valuations despite record Q1 net margins at 13.4% and 28% earnings growth. Key differentiators include sustained 15-17% 2026 EPS expansion (per FactSet consensus) versus Middle East tensions elevating oil and geopolitical volatility; upcoming nonfarm payrolls and June FOMC could sway the crowded mid-6,000s consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
거래량
$24,514종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with 27% implied probability for $6,500-$7,000 edging out 25.5% for $6,000-$6,500 and 24% for $7,000-$7,500, reflecting balanced risks from current levels near 7,370 amid sticky inflation and Fed caution versus robust earnings momentum. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—prompting the Federal Reserve to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, delaying anticipated rate cuts and pressuring valuations despite record Q1 net margins at 13.4% and 28% earnings growth. Key differentiators include sustained 15-17% 2026 EPS expansion (per FactSet consensus) versus Middle East tensions elevating oil and geopolitical volatility; upcoming nonfarm payrolls and June FOMC could sway the crowded mid-6,000s consensus.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
거래량
$24,514종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders price a tight contest for S&P 500 year-end 2026 levels, with 27% implied probability for $6,500-$7,000 edging out 25.5% for $6,000-$6,500 and 24% for $7,000-$7,500, reflecting balanced risks from current levels near 7,370 amid sticky inflation and Fed caution versus robust earnings momentum. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since mid-2024—prompting the Federal Reserve to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, delaying anticipated rate cuts and pressuring valuations despite record Q1 net margins at 13.4% and 28% earnings growth. Key differentiators include sustained 15-17% 2026 EPS expansion (per FactSet consensus) versus Middle East tensions elevating oil and geopolitical volatility; upcoming nonfarm payrolls and June FOMC could sway the crowded mid-6,000s consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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