Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar commands 86% trader consensus in the MN-05 Democratic primary market, bolstered by her acclamation for the DFL endorsement at the May 9 district convention, where challenger Latonya Reeves withdrew her name from consideration but pledged to continue campaigning. This recent development underscores Omar's incumbency advantage and history of comfortable primary victories, including 56-43% in 2024, in the heavily Democratic Minneapolis-based district. Reeves, a DNC member and AFSCME union leader positioning as a bridge-builder, holds 15.5% implied probability amid quiet fundraising and no public polling. The August 11 primary remains the key date, with potential for shifts via endorsements or scandals.