The near-certain 97.3% market-implied probability against abolishing the Federal Reserve before 2027 stems primarily from the stalled status of the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R. 1846/S. 869), introduced in March 2025 and referred to committee with no further advancement amid the 119th Congress. The Fed’s statutory mandate under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, its central role in setting the federal funds rate, managing inflation trajectories, and responding to labor market data, combined with broad institutional support across branches, reinforces continuity. Efforts have instead centered on personnel changes and supervisory reforms rather than structural repeal, which requires complex bicameral approval. Tail-risk scenarios, such as an acute financial crisis or unprecedented political realignment capable of overriding precedent, remain low-probability events priced into current odds.