Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트EU는 2027년 이전에 해체되나요?
EU는 2027년 이전에 해체되나요?
예
$163,234 거래량
$163,234 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$163,234 거래량
$163,234 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
거래량
$163,234종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$163,234종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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