Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 71% implied probability in Wei Yi vs. Hikaru Nakamura Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the solidity of classical chess at this elite double round-robin level where top grandmasters often secure equality through deep opening preparation. Both players sit at 1 point after three rounds—Nakamura rebounding from a Round 1 loss to Fabiano Caruana with draws against Andrey Esipenko and Anish Giri, while Wei Yi drew his opener versus Matthias Bluebaum and Round 2 versus R Praggnanandhaa before a crushing 19-move defeat to Caruana in Round 3 exposed a rare blunder. Nakamura's 56-point FIDE rating edge (2810-2754), superior Candidates experience, and positive head-to-head classical record from 2025 events like Norway Chess position him as the 22.5% favorite over Wei Yi's 14%, underscoring crowd wisdom on his stylistic matchup advantages in tense, must-win scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
12:454月 1
$1.53K Vol.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 71% implied probability in Wei Yi vs. Hikaru Nakamura Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the solidity of classical chess at this elite double round-robin level where top grandmasters often secure equality through deep opening preparation. Both players sit at 1 point after three rounds—Nakamura rebounding from a Round 1 loss to Fabiano Caruana with draws against Andrey Esipenko and Anish Giri, while Wei Yi drew his opener versus Matthias Bluebaum and Round 2 versus R Praggnanandhaa before a crushing 19-move defeat to Caruana in Round 3 exposed a rare blunder. Nakamura's 56-point FIDE rating edge (2810-2754), superior Candidates experience, and positive head-to-head classical record from 2025 events like Norway Chess position him as the 22.5% favorite over Wei Yi's 14%, underscoring crowd wisdom on his stylistic matchup advantages in tense, must-win scenarios.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
音量
$1,528終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET結算ソース
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...12:454月 1
$1.53K Vol.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If the match ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 71% implied probability in Wei Yi vs. Hikaru Nakamura Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the solidity of classical chess at this elite double round-robin level where top grandmasters often secure equality through deep opening preparation. Both players sit at 1 point after three rounds—Nakamura rebounding from a Round 1 loss to Fabiano Caruana with draws against Andrey Esipenko and Anish Giri, while Wei Yi drew his opener versus Matthias Bluebaum and Round 2 versus R Praggnanandhaa before a crushing 19-move defeat to Caruana in Round 3 exposed a rare blunder. Nakamura's 56-point FIDE rating edge (2810-2754), superior Candidates experience, and positive head-to-head classical record from 2025 events like Norway Chess position him as the 22.5% favorite over Wei Yi's 14%, underscoring crowd wisdom on his stylistic matchup advantages in tense, must-win scenarios.
In the upcoming match, scheduled for April 1, 2026
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
If Yi Wei wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
音量
$1,528終了日
2026/04/08マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 11:56 AM ET結算ソース
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 71% implied probability in Wei Yi vs. Hikaru Nakamura Round 4 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting the solidity of classical chess at this elite double round-robin level where top grandmasters often secure equality through deep opening preparation. Both players sit at 1 point after three rounds—Nakamura rebounding from a Round 1 loss to Fabiano Caruana with draws against Andrey Esipenko and Anish Giri, while Wei Yi drew his opener versus Matthias Bluebaum and Round 2 versus R Praggnanandhaa before a crushing 19-move defeat to Caruana in Round 3 exposed a rare blunder. Nakamura's 56-point FIDE rating edge (2810-2754), superior Candidates experience, and positive head-to-head classical record from 2025 events like Norway Chess position him as the 22.5% favorite over Wei Yi's 14%, underscoring crowd wisdom on his stylistic matchup advantages in tense, must-win scenarios.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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