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Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before June 2022?

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Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before June 2022?

Nancy Pelosi, Member of the US House of Representatives from California and present Speaker of the House, announced her intentions in April 2022 to visit Taiwan (Republic of China). Before she could initiate her trip, she tested positive for asymptomatic COVID-19, and her trip was postponed. Learning of this intended trip, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted in response: “If Pelosi, a political leader of the United States, knowingly visits Taiwan, it would be a malicious provocation against China’s sovereignty and gross interference in China’s internal affairs, and would send an extremely dangerous political signal to the outside world... If the United States insists on going its own way, China will surely make a firm response and the US side will bear all the consequences.” This market asks whether Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan between April 8, 2022, and June 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET. If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan between April 8, 2022, and June 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Nancy Pelosi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Taiwan. Whether or not Nancy Pelosi enters Taiwanese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Nancy Pelosi or released by her verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi), and official information from Taiwan (e.g. https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/news.php); however, other credible reporting may be considered.

Nancy Pelosi, Member of the US House of Representatives from California and present Speaker of the House, announced her intentions in April 2022 to visit Taiwan (Republic of China). Before she could initiate her trip, she tested positive for asymptomatic COVID-19, and her trip was postponed. Learning of this intended trip, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted in response: “If Pelosi, a political leader of the United States, knowingly visits Taiwan, it would be a malicious provocation against China’s sovereignty and gross interference in China’s internal affairs, and would send an extremely dangerous political signal to the outside world... If the United States insists on going its own way, China will surely make a firm response and the US side will bear all the consequences.” This market asks whether Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan between April 8, 2022, and June 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET. If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan between April 8, 2022, and June 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Nancy Pelosi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Taiwan. Whether or not Nancy Pelosi enters Taiwanese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Nancy Pelosi or released by her verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi), and official information from Taiwan (e.g. https://www.taiwan.gov.tw/news.php); however, other credible reporting may be considered.

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よくある質問

「Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before June 2022?」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して0%です。例えば、「はい」が0¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を0%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before June 2022?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Apr 11, 2022開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before June 2022?」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before June 2022?」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して0%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を0%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

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