The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook indicates no expected development of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin through May 31, driving the 94% market-implied probability for "No" hurricane formation—a rarity outside the official June 1 start of season. Cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key genesis zones, combined with strong upper-level wind shear and Saharan dry air intrusion, suppress organization, as confirmed by NOAA satellite and buoy data. Historically, only three May Atlantic hurricanes have occurred since 1851, none recently. Trader consensus reflects this, though a fast-organizing tropical wave from Africa could challenge it if conditions align unusually.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$33,275 Vol.
$33,275 Vol.
May 31, 2026
はい
$33,275 Vol.
$33,275 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
マーケット開始日： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
音量
$33,275終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
音量
$33,275終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook indicates no expected development of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin through May 31, driving the 94% market-implied probability for "No" hurricane formation—a rarity outside the official June 1 start of season. Cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key genesis zones, combined with strong upper-level wind shear and Saharan dry air intrusion, suppress organization, as confirmed by NOAA satellite and buoy data. Historically, only three May Atlantic hurricanes have occurred since 1851, none recently. Trader consensus reflects this, though a fast-organizing tropical wave from Africa could challenge it if conditions align unusually.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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