The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.7% reflects the complete absence of Atlantic hurricane formation through May 31, 2026, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center monitoring showing zero named storms or hurricanes prior to the official season start on June 1. Climatological data indicate that over 97% of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis occurs after this date, with May conditions typically featuring cooler sea-surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development, stronger trade winds, and elevated wind shear associated with the emerging El Niño pattern that further suppresses organization. Historical records confirm only rare pre-season hurricanes, none of which materialized this year despite isolated Eastern Pacific disturbances. While an extremely late-May intensification of an undetected disturbance could theoretically alter outcomes before resolution, current observational data and model consensus leave virtually no realistic pathway for that scenario.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$54,941 Vol.
$54,941 Vol.
2026/05/31
はい
$54,941 Vol.
$54,941 Vol.
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.7% reflects the complete absence of Atlantic hurricane formation through May 31, 2026, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center monitoring showing zero named storms or hurricanes prior to the official season start on June 1. Climatological data indicate that over 97% of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis occurs after this date, with May conditions typically featuring cooler sea-surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development, stronger trade winds, and elevated wind shear associated with the emerging El Niño pattern that further suppresses organization. Historical records confirm only rare pre-season hurricanes, none of which materialized this year despite isolated Eastern Pacific disturbances. While an extremely late-May intensification of an undetected disturbance could theoretically alter outcomes before resolution, current observational data and model consensus leave virtually no realistic pathway for that scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
マーケット開始日： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
音量
$54,941終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.7% reflects the complete absence of Atlantic hurricane formation through May 31, 2026, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center monitoring showing zero named storms or hurricanes prior to the official season start on June 1. Climatological data indicate that over 97% of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis occurs after this date, with May conditions typically featuring cooler sea-surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development, stronger trade winds, and elevated wind shear associated with the emerging El Niño pattern that further suppresses organization. Historical records confirm only rare pre-season hurricanes, none of which materialized this year despite isolated Eastern Pacific disturbances. While an extremely late-May intensification of an undetected disturbance could theoretically alter outcomes before resolution, current observational data and model consensus leave virtually no realistic pathway for that scenario.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
音量
$54,941終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on “No” at 99.7% reflects the complete absence of Atlantic hurricane formation through May 31, 2026, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center monitoring showing zero named storms or hurricanes prior to the official season start on June 1. Climatological data indicate that over 97% of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis occurs after this date, with May conditions typically featuring cooler sea-surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained development, stronger trade winds, and elevated wind shear associated with the emerging El Niño pattern that further suppresses organization. Historical records confirm only rare pre-season hurricanes, none of which materialized this year despite isolated Eastern Pacific disturbances. While an extremely late-May intensification of an undetected disturbance could theoretically alter outcomes before resolution, current observational data and model consensus leave virtually no realistic pathway for that scenario.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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