Recent legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials continues to shape trader focus in this market, with investigations into potential misconduct remaining active into mid-2026. No major indictments or arrests of leading candidates have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities anchored to procedural timelines such as grand jury activity and Department of Justice reviews. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any congressional oversight or executive branch actions on prior cases, could influence outcomes before the December 31, 2026 resolution. Traders weigh historical patterns of limited prosecutions for senior officials against ongoing inquiries, while structural factors like statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds limit near-term shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$111,277 Vol.
John Brennan
60%
Lisa Cook
46%
Mahmoud Khalil
31%
John Kerry
39%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
33%
Lee Jun-seok
29%
James Clapper
24%
Letitia James
26%
Tom Homan
22%
Brandon Johnson
19%
James Comey
17%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Adam Schiff
8%
Anthony Fauci
8%
Candace Owens
7%
Hillary Clinton
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
27%
Barack Obama
6%
Gavin Newsom
6%
Kash Patel
5%
Joe Biden
5%
Pam Bondi
5%
Susan Rice
5%
Bill Clinton
4%
$111,277 Vol.
John Brennan
$6,587 Vol.
60%
Lisa Cook
$396 Vol.
46%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,168 Vol.
31%
John Kerry
$73 Vol.
39%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$7,364 Vol.
33%
Lee Jun-seok
$555 Vol.
29%
James Clapper
$2,616 Vol.
24%
Letitia James
$1,330 Vol.
26%
Tom Homan
$27,977 Vol.
22%
Brandon Johnson
$1,887 Vol.
19%
James Comey
$9,224 Vol.
17%
Loretta Lynch
$427 Vol.
11%
Adam Schiff
$6,291 Vol.
8%
Anthony Fauci
$7,052 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$257 Vol.
7%
Hillary Clinton
$13,996 Vol.
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$255 Vol.
27%
Barack Obama
$1,368 Vol.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$18,671 Vol.
6%
Kash Patel
$153 Vol.
5%
Joe Biden
$1,546 Vol.
5%
Pam Bondi
$1,539 Vol.
5%
Susan Rice
$212 Vol.
5%
Bill Clinton
$332 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials continues to shape trader focus in this market, with investigations into potential misconduct remaining active into mid-2026. No major indictments or arrests of leading candidates have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities anchored to procedural timelines such as grand jury activity and Department of Justice reviews. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any congressional oversight or executive branch actions on prior cases, could influence outcomes before the December 31, 2026 resolution. Traders weigh historical patterns of limited prosecutions for senior officials against ongoing inquiries, while structural factors like statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds limit near-term shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$111,277マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials continues to shape trader focus in this market, with investigations into potential misconduct remaining active into mid-2026. No major indictments or arrests of leading candidates have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities anchored to procedural timelines such as grand jury activity and Department of Justice reviews. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any congressional oversight or executive branch actions on prior cases, could influence outcomes before the December 31, 2026 resolution. Traders weigh historical patterns of limited prosecutions for senior officials against ongoing inquiries, while structural factors like statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds limit near-term shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$111,277マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent legal scrutiny of former U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials continues to shape trader focus in this market, with investigations into potential misconduct remaining active into mid-2026. No major indictments or arrests of leading candidates have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities anchored to procedural timelines such as grand jury activity and Department of Justice reviews. Scheduled developments through year-end, including any congressional oversight or executive branch actions on prior cases, could influence outcomes before the December 31, 2026 resolution. Traders weigh historical patterns of limited prosecutions for senior officials against ongoing inquiries, while structural factors like statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds limit near-term shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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