The 2026 midterm elections on November 3 create the direct comparison point, with resolution based on each listed Democrat's certified general-election vote share against Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential share in the same state. Trader consensus currently prices Tina Kotek in Oregon and Troy Jackson in Maine as the strongest candidates to fall short, reflecting state-level polling trends, incumbency dynamics, and historical baselines in those contests. Other races, including New York Governor Kathy Hochul, Minnesota Senate's Peggy Flanagan, and Georgia Governor Keisha Lance Bottoms, show more mixed positioning as national generic ballot leads for Democrats and recent candidate-specific surveys influence assessments. AOC's planned campaign appearance for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and similar late-cycle events could shift individual trajectories before Election Day, while turnout patterns and any last-minute shifts in swing-state environments remain key variables ahead of certification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日View resolved










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