The arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by U.S. authorities, alongside his son Joaquín Guzmán López, highlights ongoing U.S.-Mexico intelligence cooperation targeting top narco-traffickers through lures and extraditions, boosting feasibility for future captures. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes remains the FBI's most-wanted with a $15 million bounty, while Gulf Cartel and other figures like Rafael Caro Quintero face similar pressures amid U.S. Treasury sanctions. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, inaugurated October 2024, continues "hugs not bullets" security but faces U.S. demands for action post-election. No confirmed timelines exist for 2026 arrests, with risks from cartel violence, corruption, and diplomatic shifts influencing trader assessments of high-profile detentions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年に逮捕されるカルテルのリーダーは誰ですか？
2026年に逮捕されるカルテルのリーダーは誰ですか？
$3,367 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
イヴァン・アルチバルド・グスマン・サラサール
16%
ヘスス・アルフレド・グスマン・サラザール
18%
リカルド・ルイス・ベラスコ
54%
オウディアス・フローレス＝シルバ
30%
ウーゴ・ゴンザロ・メンドーサ・ガイタン
38%
フアン・カルロス・バレンシア・ゴンザレス
23%
フアン・レジェス・メヒア・ゴンザレス
55%
フアン・パブロ・レデスマ
55%
$3,367 Vol.
イヴァン・アルチバルド・グスマン・サラサール
$0 Vol.
16%
ヘスス・アルフレド・グスマン・サラザール
$0 Vol.
18%
リカルド・ルイス・ベラスコ
$0 Vol.
54%
オウディアス・フローレス＝シルバ
$0 Vol.
30%
ウーゴ・ゴンザロ・メンドーサ・ガイタン
$3,367 Vol.
38%
フアン・カルロス・バレンシア・ゴンザレス
$0 Vol.
23%
フアン・レジェス・メヒア・ゴンザレス
$0 Vol.
55%
フアン・パブロ・レデスマ
$0 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by U.S. authorities, alongside his son Joaquín Guzmán López, highlights ongoing U.S.-Mexico intelligence cooperation targeting top narco-traffickers through lures and extraditions, boosting feasibility for future captures. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes remains the FBI's most-wanted with a $15 million bounty, while Gulf Cartel and other figures like Rafael Caro Quintero face similar pressures amid U.S. Treasury sanctions. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, inaugurated October 2024, continues "hugs not bullets" security but faces U.S. demands for action post-election. No confirmed timelines exist for 2026 arrests, with risks from cartel violence, corruption, and diplomatic shifts influencing trader assessments of high-profile detentions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
音量
$3,367終了日
Feb 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by U.S. authorities, alongside his son Joaquín Guzmán López, highlights ongoing U.S.-Mexico intelligence cooperation targeting top narco-traffickers through lures and extraditions, boosting feasibility for future captures. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes remains the FBI's most-wanted with a $15 million bounty, while Gulf Cartel and other figures like Rafael Caro Quintero face similar pressures amid U.S. Treasury sanctions. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, inaugurated October 2024, continues "hugs not bullets" security but faces U.S. demands for action post-election. No confirmed timelines exist for 2026 arrests, with risks from cartel violence, corruption, and diplomatic shifts influencing trader assessments of high-profile detentions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$3,367終了日
Feb 28, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada in July 2024 by U.S. authorities, alongside his son Joaquín Guzmán López, highlights ongoing U.S.-Mexico intelligence cooperation targeting top narco-traffickers through lures and extraditions, boosting feasibility for future captures. CJNG head Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes remains the FBI's most-wanted with a $15 million bounty, while Gulf Cartel and other figures like Rafael Caro Quintero face similar pressures amid U.S. Treasury sanctions. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, inaugurated October 2024, continues "hugs not bullets" security but faces U.S. demands for action post-election. No confirmed timelines exist for 2026 arrests, with risks from cartel violence, corruption, and diplomatic shifts influencing trader assessments of high-profile detentions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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