Virginia's 11th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates in federal races, a pattern reinforced when James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote. As the sitting incumbent, Walkinshaw enters the 2026 cycle with strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and the structural advantages of an open primary field that includes several Democratic challengers but few serious threats. Republican primary candidate Nathan Headrick faces the same steep headwinds that produced a 50-point deficit for his party in the prior contest. Trader consensus at 95.2 percent for Democrats reflects these fundamentals, though an unusually weak Democratic performance in the broader midterm environment or an unexpected primary surprise could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,977 Vol.
$18,977 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$18,977 Vol.
$18,977 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$12,275 Vol.
95%
共和党
$6,702 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 11th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates in federal races, a pattern reinforced when James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote. As the sitting incumbent, Walkinshaw enters the 2026 cycle with strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and the structural advantages of an open primary field that includes several Democratic challengers but few serious threats. Republican primary candidate Nathan Headrick faces the same steep headwinds that produced a 50-point deficit for his party in the prior contest. Trader consensus at 95.2 percent for Democrats reflects these fundamentals, though an unusually weak Democratic performance in the broader midterm environment or an unexpected primary surprise could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$18,977終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 11th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates in federal races, a pattern reinforced when James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote. As the sitting incumbent, Walkinshaw enters the 2026 cycle with strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and the structural advantages of an open primary field that includes several Democratic challengers but few serious threats. Republican primary candidate Nathan Headrick faces the same steep headwinds that produced a 50-point deficit for his party in the prior contest. Trader consensus at 95.2 percent for Democrats reflects these fundamentals, though an unusually weak Democratic performance in the broader midterm environment or an unexpected primary surprise could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,977終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia's 11th congressional district has long favored Democratic candidates in federal races, a pattern reinforced when James Walkinshaw secured the seat in the September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote. As the sitting incumbent, Walkinshaw enters the 2026 cycle with strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and the structural advantages of an open primary field that includes several Democratic challengers but few serious threats. Republican primary candidate Nathan Headrick faces the same steep headwinds that produced a 50-point deficit for his party in the prior contest. Trader consensus at 95.2 percent for Democrats reflects these fundamentals, though an unusually weak Democratic performance in the broader midterm environment or an unexpected primary surprise could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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