The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
54%
共和党
32%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$287 Vol.
54%
共和党
$516 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
音量
$803終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$803終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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