Incumbent Republican Brandon Gill's landslide victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing 91% of the vote against a token challenger, has reinforced trader consensus at 89% implied probability for the GOP in the TX-26 House general election. The district's strong Republican lean (R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and Gill's prior 2024 general election win by 26 points underscore formidable barriers for Democrat Steven Shook, who narrowly prevailed in his primary at 51%. With no recent polling shifts or competitive indicators, incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe Republican seats drive the lopsided odds ahead of the November 3 contest, though national midterm dynamics or scandals could prompt reassessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
89%
民主党
10%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,381 Vol.
89%
民主党
$2,941 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brandon Gill's landslide victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing 91% of the vote against a token challenger, has reinforced trader consensus at 89% implied probability for the GOP in the TX-26 House general election. The district's strong Republican lean (R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and Gill's prior 2024 general election win by 26 points underscore formidable barriers for Democrat Steven Shook, who narrowly prevailed in his primary at 51%. With no recent polling shifts or competitive indicators, incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe Republican seats drive the lopsided odds ahead of the November 3 contest, though national midterm dynamics or scandals could prompt reassessment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$6,322終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brandon Gill's landslide victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing 91% of the vote against a token challenger, has reinforced trader consensus at 89% implied probability for the GOP in the TX-26 House general election. The district's strong Republican lean (R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and Gill's prior 2024 general election win by 26 points underscore formidable barriers for Democrat Steven Shook, who narrowly prevailed in his primary at 51%. With no recent polling shifts or competitive indicators, incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe Republican seats drive the lopsided odds ahead of the November 3 contest, though national midterm dynamics or scandals could prompt reassessment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,322終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brandon Gill's landslide victory in the March 3 Republican primary, capturing 91% of the vote against a token challenger, has reinforced trader consensus at 89% implied probability for the GOP in the TX-26 House general election. The district's strong Republican lean (R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and Gill's prior 2024 general election win by 26 points underscore formidable barriers for Democrat Steven Shook, who narrowly prevailed in his primary at 51%. With no recent polling shifts or competitive indicators, incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe Republican seats drive the lopsided odds ahead of the November 3 contest, though national midterm dynamics or scandals could prompt reassessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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