Bobby Pulido holds an 82.5% implied probability in the TX-15 House race according to trader consensus, reflecting recent polling averages that show the Democratic challenger leading or tied with Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. The district, redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans based on the 2024 presidential results, has nevertheless become competitive due to Pulido’s high name recognition as a Tejano musician and his extensive grassroots outreach at local events across the Rio Grande Valley and surrounding counties. Multiple surveys through late September placed Pulido ahead or within the margin of error, prompting forecasters including the Cook Political Report to shift the race to toss-up status. De La Cruz has emphasized border security and appropriations wins while highlighting attacks on her opponent, yet public polling has not shifted materially in her favor with early voting weeks away.