Morena holds a slight edge in trader pricing for control of Sonora's state congress in the 2027 elections, consistent with recent polling showing the Morena-PT-PVEM bloc near 44% support while PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano trail in the low-to-mid 20s or below amid a fragmented opposition. Internal Morena processes, including the selection of Lorenia Valles as state coordinator and competitive preference surveys among figures like Javier Lamarque, have reinforced party cohesion ahead of the legislative contest. Opposition realignment around candidates such as Antonio Astiazarán for PAN continues without clear consolidation, leaving room for shifts from local alliances, turnout patterns, or late campaign developments before the June vote.