The 2027 Oaxaca state congressional elections, scheduled for June, feature 42 seats split between majority-relative and proportional-representation districts, with the current LXVI legislature already dominated by Morena and its allies. Trader consensus places Morena and PVEM as the leading contenders at 43% each, reflecting their strong coalition track record in recent state contests, control of roughly 80% of current seats, and ongoing negotiations within the Sigamos Haciendo Historia alliance despite reported local tensions and a partial break with the PT. Lower odds for PAN, MC, PRI, and others mirror those parties’ weaker recent vote shares and limited organizational reach in Oaxaca’s districts. Upcoming IEEPCO rulings on candidacies and independent registrations, plus coalition seat-allocation talks, remain the main near-term variables that could shift probabilities before the campaign intensifies.