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選挙·米国選挙

NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
選挙·米国選挙

NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者

ハキーム・ジェフリーズ 93%

ヴァンス・ボスティック 4.0%

チ・オッセ 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW

ハキーム・ジェフリーズ 93%

ヴァンス・ボスティック 4.0%

チ・オッセ 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

ハキーム・ジェフリーズ

$0 Vol.

93%

Market icon

ヴァンス・ボスティック

$517 Vol.

4%

Market icon

チ・オッセ

$0 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District.

If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$517
終了日
Jun 23, 2026
マーケット開始日
Nov 11, 2025, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Hakeem Jeffries' commanding 92.5% implied probability in the NY-08 Democratic Primary stems from his incumbency as House Minority Leader, overwhelming fundraising edge—over $5 million raised versus challengers' modest hauls—and broad establishment backing from unions and party leaders. Challengers Chi Ossé, a DSA-backed progressive council member, and Vance Bostic, a community organizer, have gained limited traction despite critiques of Jeffries on Israel policy and housing issues, with no recent polls showing competitive margins ahead of the June 25 vote. Realistic challenges would require a major scandal hitting Jeffries or unusually high progressive turnout, though historical base rates for top Democrats in safe seats favor continuity, reflecting trader consensus on low upset risk.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ハキーム・ジェフリーズ」で93%、次いで「ヴァンス・ボスティック」が4%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、93¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に93%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 11, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ハキーム・ジェフリーズ」で93%であり、市場がこの結果に93%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ヴァンス・ボスティック」で4%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NY -08民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。