Trader consensus leans slightly toward "No" on a new MLB CBA by Dec. 1, 2026, at 52% implied probability, driven by historical precedent of negotiations dragging past deadlines—like the 99-day lockout before the 2022 agreement—and unresolved flashpoints including luxury tax thresholds, minimum salaries, and service-time manipulation. With no formal talks underway despite the CBA's expiration date aligning precisely with the market close, competitive balance stems from owners' revenue optimism post-record 2024 attendance versus MLBPA demands for revenue sharing tweaks amid rising player pay. Positive bargaining updates or committee formations could surge Yes odds, while escalating rhetoric on competitive balance tax hikes might solidify No.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Dec 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$0終了日
Dec 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans slightly toward "No" on a new MLB CBA by Dec. 1, 2026, at 52% implied probability, driven by historical precedent of negotiations dragging past deadlines—like the 99-day lockout before the 2022 agreement—and unresolved flashpoints including luxury tax thresholds, minimum salaries, and service-time manipulation. With no formal talks underway despite the CBA's expiration date aligning precisely with the market close, competitive balance stems from owners' revenue optimism post-record 2024 attendance versus MLBPA demands for revenue sharing tweaks amid rising player pay. Positive bargaining updates or committee formations could surge Yes odds, while escalating rhetoric on competitive balance tax hikes might solidify No.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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